New York Islanders vs. Montreal Canadiens Odds, Lines, Picks & Predictions – NHL, Apr. 15

There are just two NHL games on the schedule Friday, but that’s still enough to take part in some NHL betting.

The New York Islanders did themselves no favors with their goaltending ahead of Friday’s matchup against the Montreal Canadiens.

The Isles will be skating on the second night of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights. Primary goalie Ilya Sorokin started the first two games, meaning backup goalie Semyon Varlamov is expected in between the pipes tonight.

That could be the difference, as the Islanders continue their anticipated regression in Montreal.

Here are some analysis and NHL betting picks for the matchup.

Islanders vs. Canadiens Odds, Moneyline, Over/Under

Moneyline: Islanders -145 |Canadiens +120

Spread: Islanders -1.5 (+170) |Canadiens +1.5 (-200)

Total: 5.5 Over -120 | Under +100

Islanders vs. Canadiens Analysis

Goaltending and scheduling issues aren’t the only factors impacting the Islanders’ chances at victory tonight. New York has also been overachieving relative to their metrics and Thursday’s 6-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins could be a sign of things to come.

The Islanders continue to get outplayed, posting expected goals-for ratings below 50% in six of their past seven outings. Still, they are winning games, going 4-3-0 over that stretch.

That disconnect between performances and outcomes leaves the Islanders on the edge of regression, as their expected values balance with actual outcomes over their coming games. Look for that to continue tonight as they skate on the second night of a back-to-back, relying on Varlamov to contend with a feisty Habs attack.

This season hasn’t gone well for the Canadiens, but things have been better under new head coach Martin St. Louis, particularly on home ice.

Montreal has two straight losses at the Bell Centre, but that contrasts with some solid performances.

The Habs have out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances by a combined 27-18 margin in those games, attempting 12 or more opportunities in each outing. They should be expected to continue their strong play against an Islanders squad that has given up 11 or more quality chances in three of their past five.

Friday’s circumstances favor the Habs, but that’s not reflected in the betting price as they enter the Eastern Conference battle as +120 underdogs.

That leaves an advantage in backing the home side as the Isles continue down their inevitable path with regression.

Islanders vs. Canadiens Predictions

The Pick: Canadiens +120