- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Rangers
- Lightning vs. Rangers Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TVA | MSG | SPOT | ESPN+
The Tampa Bay Lightning (0-0) visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers (0-1) on Oct. 1 in New York, NY. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Lightning vs. Rangers Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Rangers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +165 | 6 -115 | -145 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -200 | 6 -105 | +120 |
Lightning vs Rangers Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 56.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Rangers Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Rangers will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 away games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+3.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets & Trends
- The New York Rangers have hit the 3P Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Rangers have covered the 3P Puck Line in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Rangers have covered the 2P Puck Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Rangers have hit the 2P Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Rangers vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +165 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +180 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev (NYR) | +190 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +210 |
| Mika Zibanejad (NYR) | +210 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +220 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Rangers
The Lightning were 48-30 (.615) last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 94-63 (.599) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 15-6 (.714) when tied after the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 36-4 (.900) when scoring 4 or more non-shootout goals last season — tied for 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .870
Rangers: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Rangers were 8-19 (.296) when tied after the first period last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Rangers were 33-47 (.412) last season — 4th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Rangers are 71-89 (.444) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Rangers were 22-38 (.367) when allowing 14 or more high danger chances last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .469
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning had 20 rush chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
The Lightning drew 20 penalties while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning have 9.7 points per game since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.2
Rangers Offensive Stats & Trends
The Rangers had 1.8 rush chances per game while tied last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.4
The Rangers had 5.1 rush chances per game last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.4
The Rangers had 1.8 rush chances per game in the second period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.3
The Rangers scored on 14% of rush chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning allowed 4.8 high danger chances per game in the second period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.0
The Lightning allowed 1.74 expected goals per game in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.11
The Lightning allowed 9.6 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12.1
The Lightning allowed 2.7 goals per game last season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 3.1
Rangers Defensive Stats & Trends
The Rangers allowed 2.5 rush chances per game in the third period last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.9
The Rangers allowed 50 forecheck chances against the power play last season — most among NHL Teams
The Rangers allowed 199 rush chances in the third period last season — most among NHL Teams
The Rangers have a .700 save percentage in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .819
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