NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Who Is Favored To Win NHL MVP?

With the NHL offseason transactions winding down as we enter the latter part of July, we have a better idea of who will be in contention for next year’s major regular-season awards. 

There’s no bigger prize than the Hart Memorial Trophy: the NHL’s most valuable player award. In 2025-26, Nikita Kucherov emerged as a dark horse Hart candidate later on in the year and eventually won the award. He opened as a +700 underdog to win but won over the preseason favorite, Nathan MacKinnon. 

This follows a similar upset-ish win by goaltender Connor Hellebuyck at the end of the 2024-25 season. 

Keep this in mind as we enter the 2026-27 season because the top three or four players in opening odds may end up not factoring in at the end of the season. Here’s what the odds look like as of July 20.

NHL Hart Trophy Odds

2026-27 Hart Trophy Co-Favorites

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers (+300)

Edmonton’s Connor McDavid is the first of two superstar Canadian centers owning the shortest odds for MVP.

McDavid will turn 30 this upcoming season and already has three Hart Trophy wins in his trophy case, winning in 2017, 2021, and 2023. Beyond that, McDavid has appeared in the top five of Hart voting in nine out of his 11 seasons in the league and has placed second twice, including last year. 

McDavid came very, very close to winning last season, receiving 72.02% of the vote compared to 72.53% for Kucherov. He only had four fewer first-place votes than the eventual winner. 

It’s insane that McDavid can get that kind of a result in Hart voting in a season that won’t be remembered at all in the highlight reel of his Hall of Fame career.

McDavid’s Oilers had a disappointing run this year, especially compared to the Cup Finals standard set in the two seasons prior. 

They finished with a 41-30-11 record and 93 points, placing them second in a weak Pacific Division. They then bowed out of the playoffs in an odd six-game series loss against the Ducks.

McDavid did not show up in that series, scoring one goal and contributing five assists while earning a -8 plus/minus rating. 

Heading into 2026-27, it makes sense that McDavid is once again in the Hart discussion. Last preseason, I likened him to Shohei Ohtani or Patrick Mahomes, who are, if healthy, almost certainly going to be in contention for their respective league MVPs. 

An upgrade at goaltender for Edmonton, after the signing of Frederik Andersen, could turn the Oilers back into a Stanley Cup favorite once again and boost their win total, thus making McDavid a stronger Hart candidate. 

Overall team regular-season performance may not mean much to voters, though, as McDavid came very close to winning in a lackluster season, and our next Hart favorite didn’t get really any love from voters despite being on a Presidents’ Trophy-winning side. 

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche (+300)

The 2025-26 season was one of ups and downs, then more downs, and then a few more downs for Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon. 

On the bright side, his team won the Presidents’ Trophy, he was a big piece of Canada’s 2026 Winter Olympics team, and he made it to the Conference Finals. 

On the dark side, though, his team flamed out and got swept in the Conference Finals, he became a Hall-of-Fame level meme for his missed goal and general poor attitude in the Gold Medal game of the Olympics, and he lost the MVP despite being an odds-favorite for basically the entire season. 

He led the league in goals with 53 and led the league in plus-minus with a +57 rating, but couldn’t overcome Kucherov and McDavid. In the Conference Finals, the goals leader was a no-show, with zero goals and only two assists. 

While he’s still a multi-millionaire, and I’m sure he has a great house and has been on some great vacations this summer, 2026 was a pretty disappointing year for MacKinnon. 

Despite a previous Hart Trophy win in 2023-24, this past season was probably his best shot for another. He has co-favorite status right now, but if the voters didn’t reward him for last year, I’m not really sure what else he can do.