Ovi Watch: Will Alex Ovechkin Break Wayne Gretzky’s NHL Goals Record This Year?

Can The Great Eight catch the Great One in 2024-25?

The once-unthinkable is now an inevitability, though when Alexander Ovechkin scores his 895th NHL goal, – thus passing Wayne Gretzky for the most in NHL history – is still up for debate.

Ovechkin is hot on Gretzky’s heels, sitting just 16 goals of becoming the new champion after scoring in the first period of Washington’s 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Feb. 6.

With that in mind, BetMGM has begun taking wagers for whether Ovi will pass Gretzky this season. Here’s a look at the odds and where that stands as of Feb. 21.

Alex Ovechkin Passing Wayne Gretzky Odds

Will Alex Ovechkin pass Wayne Gretzky this season:

• Yes: +185
• No: -190

Method of Ovechkin’s 895th goal:

• Even strength: -220
• Power Play: +150
• Short-handed: +6600

Ovechkin to score No. 895 vs Team X

• Will not score in 2024-25: -250
• Blue Jackets: +850
• Islanders: +1100
• Penguins: +1600
• Hurricanes: +1700
• Blackhawks: +3000

Alex Ovechkin 2024-25 Goal-Scoring Pace

When Ovechkin broke his leg in a knee-on-knee collision with Jack McBain in mid-November it looked like his chase of Gretzky’s NHL record goal total of 894 would get pushed back for one season.

After all, the 39-year-old Capitals captain entered this season 42 goals shy of 895 and was slated to miss four-to-six weeks after sustaining the injury after his encounter with the Utah Hockey Club defenseman. 

But they say the Russian machine never breaks, and even though he ultimately missed about five-and-a-half weeks with the injury, Ovechkin has picked up right where he left off post-injury – and his pace has even picked up in the past week. Ovi has scored in four straight games and has 11 in 20 games since returning.

So even though he missed 16 games, which stands as the most he ever will sit out in a single season, and is not getting any younger, Ovechkin remains on a 44-goal pace for this season. Plus, Ovechkin only stands to get fresher since he got about two weeks off with the Four Nations Face-Off break. 

If Ovi hits 44 goals, it would be the most for him in a single season since he struck for 50 goals in 2021-22. It also means he would pass Gretzky by two goals entering the offseason.

Will Ovi Top Gretzky in 2024-25?

Ovechkin is ahead of the 42-goal pace required, but the pressure will continue to mount on him as he approaches Gretzky’s record, even though The Great One is supportive of Ovi’s pursuit. 

Ovechkin has been less prolific on the power play this season, with just six man-advantage goals this year. But he has accounted for that by scoring six empty-net goals, which is tied for second-most in the NHL this year and has boosted his NHL-record total to 63 as of Feb. 21.

Detractors may call Ovechkin’s empty-net-goal binge cheap, especially since he has 24 empty netters since the start of the 2021-22 season, but Gretzky is second on the list of empty-net goals (56). 

Ovechkin is a tick above a half-goal-per-game pace since returning from injury, and if he stays on that pace he will finish two goals short of Gretzky – since Washington has 27 games left as of Feb. 21.

Still, with Washington coach Spencer Carbery throwing Ovechkin on the ice for end-of-game scenarios, and the Caps winning a ton of games – they sit atop the Eastern Conference as of Feb. 21 – he could make up ground by scoring empty-net goals.

Prediction: Ovechkin scores a power-play goal in Game 82, against his arch-nemeses Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins, on April 17, and if he does that would hit at +1600 based on the odds given currently. But Washington also has two games against Columbus in the final week of the season, which is why the Blue Jackets have the shortest odds of any potential opponent to allow the goal this season.