Sabres vs Canadiens Game 7 Odds, Prediction

There’s one more game to play in the second round of this year’s NHL playoffs: Game 7 between Montreal and Buffalo. 

The Sabres and Canadiens will face off in a loser-leaves-town match to decide who’ll face the buzzsaw Hurricanes in the Conference Finals.

It’s often said that the two greatest words in sports are Game 7. I’ve always disagreed with that, just because there are so many other contenders like “home run,” “goalie fight,” “butt fumble,” or the simple “we won.” 

But this matchup between teams who have been waiting a while for a moment like this will likely produce a lot of fireworks.

Here’s a look at the odds for both teams to advance and a case for why each of them could be moving on. 

Sabres vs Canadiens Game 7 Odds, Prediction

Buffalo Sabres (-120)

Buffalo is an ever-so-slight favorite in this Game 7 matchup, with -118 odds on the moneyline. The Sabres are a +135 favorite to win the game in regulation. 

Additionally, Buffalo also holds +650 odds to win by a margin of three goals. 

The Sabres finished the season with the best record in the Atlantic Division and the second-best overall record in the Eastern Conference. They got here by defeating Boston in six games in a not-so-competitive first-round series.

Buffalo overcame Montreal’s 3-2 series lead with a dominant 8-3 Game 6 victory in the Centre Bell. The Sabres have been so good on the road in this year’s playoffs that head coach Lindy Ruff jokingly suggested that they’re asking to play Game 7 in Montreal. 

Throughout the playoffs, Buffalo has a 2-4 record at home. The Canadiens have won in the last two games played at the Key Bank Center, which will host Game 7 on Monday night. 

The key to a Game 7 victory for the Sabres probably comes down to their goaltending. 

Alex Lyon has started in three games for Buffalo this series and has allowed 12 goals through those starts. Lyon allowed three goals on four shots in the first period. Money Puck rated all four shot attempts as either low-danger or medium-danger. 

After Lyon was pulled in favor of backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres scored seven unanswered goals. UPL saved all 18 shots he faced. 

When Montreal’s offense has been kept in check by replacement-level goaltending, Buffalo has won. It would be a dumbfounding mistake for Lindy Ruff not to start Luukkonen in Game 7. 

The Sabres averaged 3.45 goals per game this season, the fifth-highest per game in the league. They’ve kept pace with that during this series, averaging about 3.1 goals per game. 

If Buffalo can play their game and not be held back by goaltending miscues, it should find a tight victory in Game 7. 

NHL history buffs probably don’t need to be reminded, but the Sabres have not played in a Conference Finals since 2007. In 2007, the price of gas was $2.80, the iPhone had just been released, and Tage Thompson was 10 years old. 

Montreal Canadiens (+100)

As the odds stand currently, the Canadiens are a slight underdog in Game 7, with +100 odds to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Montreal got to this place in the semifinals after knocking out a title contender, the Lightning, in the first round. In something they hope to replicate Monday night, the Canadiens won the series on the road in a tight 2-1 Game 7 victory. 

Montreal’s goalie, Jakub Dobes, was key in that game and has been all postseason. Dobes has started in 13 games for the Canadiens, earning a 2.59 GAA and a .906 save percentage.

Dobes has been decent in this series as well, with a .874 save percentage after starting in all six games. 

Another standout player for Montreal in the series has been forward Alex Newhook, who has carried a major offensive load in the team’s first two wins. He had two goals in Game 2 and Game 3.

In the playoffs as a whole, the 25-year-old Newhook has six goals and two assists. He has +340 odds to score in Monday’s Game 7. 

Like Buffalo, the Canadiens have performed better on the road in these playoffs. They won three of four games at Amalie Arena in the first round and won in Buffalo in Games 1 and 5. 

If Montreal can continue to exploit the goalie mismatch and continue their road dominance, then they’ll be headed to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Game 7 Prediction

My gut is telling me to go with the Canadiens in this Game 7 matchup. 

Despite the recency bias from the Sabres’ dominant Game 6 victory, I think Montreal has a better shot at advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

It’ll be a close game, but the road record for the Canadiens this season is what makes me think they’ll be winning the win-or-go-home game.