USA vs Canada: Men’s Olympic Hockey Odds & Prediction

This is the one we’ve been waiting for. 

After a dominant 6-2 win over Slovakia in the semifinals, Team USA will face off against Canada on Sunday for the gold medal. The matchup was set up earlier in the day when Canada had a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Finland. 

The first Winter Olympics since 2014 with participation from NHL players has been an incredible success, and it’ll culminate in a faceoff between the tournament’s two best teams. 

While the Americans are guaranteed their first medal in men’s hockey since the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, Team USA is in pursuit of something bigger: its first gold medal since the 1980 Lake Placid Winter Olympics. 

It’ll be the seventh time that the two countries have met for a chance at Olympic gold. Canada has won six of those meetings, with the lone American win at the 1960 Squaw Valley Olympics. 

Here are the odds for the gold medal game as of Feb. 20. 

USA vs Canada Odds

Canada is a -1.5 point favorite in this game, and they’re getting a -118 line on the moneyline. Team USA has -102 moneyline odds. 

The over/under for the game is set at 5. 

USA vs Canada Prediction

Hockey fans have been dreaming about a gold medal game between Team USA and Canada since it was announced that NHL players would be competing in the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics.

Fans were given some insight into what an Olympic matchup could look like last year at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament when the two countries met twice, including in that tournament’s finals. 

Team USA came away with a 3-1 victory in the first meeting in the round-robin stage at the Centre Bell in Montreal, Canada then got a 3-2 overtime victory in the finals of the tournament at the TD Garden in Boston. 

The rosters are pretty much the same from Canada’s victory at the 4 Nations, but the stakes are much higher. 

It could be argued that the Americans have their best-ever Winter Olympics team in Milan. But now they have to face the Canadians, who may have assembled the most talented team in the history of ice hockey for Milan. 

Canada currently has the three leading Hart Trophy candidates on its roster: Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, and San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini. All three have been major contributors to their success so far in the tournament. 

Celebrini leads the tournament in scoring with five goals, and McDavid leads the tournament in overall points with 13. 

Their forward group also includes Vegas’ Mitch Marner and Florida’s Brad Marchand, Sam Reinhart, and Sam Bennett. Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby was injured in the game against Czechia on Wednesday, did not play against Finland on Friday, and remains questionable. 

Team USA has elite all-pro forwards as well, including New Jersey’s Jack Hughes, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk, and Vegas’ Jack Eichel, but Canada has a clear advantage in the forward group. 

The Americans’ hope for gold rests in their advantage on defense and in net. 

Despite a perennial Norris Trophy candidate in Cale Makar, Team USA’s defense is stronger than Canada’s. Minnesota defenseman Quinn Hughes has been a scoring threat and a lockdown defender in this tournament. Boston’s Charlie McAvoy has become a fearsome physical presence as well. 

In net, the Americans will likely go to the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck, who leads the tournament in save percentage and GAA. 

The Canadians have a goalie that they’ve grown to trust in Jordan Binnington. But despite his clutch tendencies in big games, he’s only been serviceable in these Olympics, allowing seven goals in four games in these Olympics. 

The Americans also have an advantage in terms of rest, after the lead they ran up before the third period. Canada did not have that luxury, with head coach Jon Cooper needing to keep his best players on the ice for very long shifts until the very end of their win over Finland. 

Canada will have a harder time finding a come-from-behind victory in this game. If they get behind early, there’s less of a chance that Hellebuyck lets in game-tying or game-winning goals like his counterparts on Czechia or Finland did. 

And if the game goes to overtime, Team USA will have a very, very hard time winning in a 3-on-3 period when the other team is playing McDavid, Celebrini, and MacKinnon. 

As far as predictions go, all I’ll say is that while both teams can win the game, the Americans have a much smaller margin for error.