USA vs Sweden: Men’s Olympic Hockey Odds & Prediction

We have less than a week to go in the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, and the medal round for the men’s ice hockey tournament is about to commence. 

The best-on-best men’s tournament already has rave reviews in this Winter Olympics, which is the first time NHL players have participated since the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. But with these single-elimination games about to begin, it’s about to get even more exciting. 

After defeating Latvia, Denmark, and Germany in the preliminary round, Team USA has earned the second overall seed and will face off against Sweden in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. 

Team USA will be trying to get its first gold medal win in men’s ice hockey since the ‘Miracle on Ice’ win at the 1980 Lake Placid Winter Olympics. 

Here are the odds for their matchup against Sweden as of Feb. 17. 

USA vs Sweden Odds

Currently, Team USA is set as a 1.5-point favorite to win its quarterfinal game against Sweden. They’re a slight favorite in the moneyline, with the line set at -235. 

The over/under for the game is set at 6.5. 

USA vs Sweden Prediction

Wednesday’s matchup feels more like a semifinal or even a gold-medal-game matchup than one fitting of the quarterfinals. A matchup between two of the best teams should not happen this early, but Team Sweden’s early performance has made it happen. 

The Swedes dropped a 4-1 game to Finland in their second game at the Olympics, which left them facing a win-or-go-home playoff game on Tuesday. Now, they’re the seventh seed facing off against an American roster that cruised to a second seed. 

While Team USA outscored their opponents 16-5, they’re a group whose battle-testedness pales in comparison to Team Sweden, which already looked elimination in the face. 

The Americans’ scariest moment was trailing 2-1 after the first period against Denmark. They quickly scored three goals in the second period and left no doubt with a 6-3 victory. 

The Swedes are undoubtedly the best roster that Team USA has faced so far in these Olympics. They’ve got a fully-NHL team with Toronto forward William Nylander, Minnesota forward Joel Eriksson Ek, and Los Angeles forward Adrian Kempe on their top line. Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin and Florida’s Gustav Forsling run Team Sweden’s top defensive pairing. 

Sweden is vying for its first gold medal since the 2006 Turin Winter Olympics. At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics they just missed a medal opportunity, finishing in fourth place after a 2-1 overtime loss to Russia in the semifinals 

Maybe the top-end elite talent isn’t the same, but Sweden has as much depth in the forward and defensive groups as the Americans and Canadians do. 

The Swedes have gotten great stuff out of Detroit’s Lucas Raymond has the second-most points in the tournament with eight for Team Sweden. New York’s Mika Zibanejad has also been a steady contributor. 

Team USA has shown it has scoring depth, too. 11 different players on America’s roster have scored a goal, with captain Auston Matthews leading the way with three goals. 

Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck gives Team USA the advantage in net, too. He’s been very solid through the two games he’s started, with a .952 save percentage and only two allowed goals.

I think the Americans will win this game and move on to the next round, but I think it’s going to be close. I predict that the game stays under that 6.5 point line.