Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 25, 2023, 11:04 AM
  • The Bucks are -8.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSWI & ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Bucks Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 24-23 against the spread, while the Bucks are 25-20 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+8.5 -115O 231.5 -110+260
Milwaukee Bucks -8.5 -105U 231.5 -110-350

Bucks vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Wednesday‘s game with 67.5% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Bucks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.46 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games (+16.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 55 of their last 90 games (+15.43 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 53 of their last 88 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 46 of their last 70 games (+19.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 55 of their last 92 games (+15.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.94 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+11.61 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 24-23 (-1.3 Units / -2.46% ROI).

  • 34-14 against the Moneyline (+13.35 Units / 10.24% ROI)
  • 22-26 against the Over for game total points (-6.6 Units / -12.5% ROI)
  • 26-22 against the Under for game total points (+1.8 Units / 3.41% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 25-20 (+3 Units / 5.8% ROI).

  • 30-17 against the Moneyline (-0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI)
  • 23-24 against the Over for game total points (-3.4 Units / -6.58% ROI)
  • 24-23 against the Under for game total points (-1.3 Units / -2.51% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 92 games (-39.47 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 34 of their last 75 games (-27.43 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 24 of their last 70 games (-26.75 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 33 of their last 85 games (-24.24 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 61 games (-19.99 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 90 games (-28.35 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 85 games (-25.53 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 71 games (-24.55 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 85 games (-18.93 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 3Q Spread in 36 of their last 86 games (-18.36 Units / -19% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Denver Nuggets are 15-1 (.938) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 14.6 turnovers per game (688 turnovers/47 games) this season — tied for sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,777 turnovers/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-highest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

The Nuggets are 40-8 (.833) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Milwaukee Bucks are 64-15 (.810) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — fifth-best among NBA teams. The Detroit Pistons have averaged 42.8 rebounds per game (5,567 rebounds/130 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Bucks are winless (0-15) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .181

The Bucks are 41-7 (.854) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

The Bucks are 45-17 (.726) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Bucks vs. NuggetsWednesday‘s Game, Jan. 25

  • Bobby Portis (Bucks): Portis suffered an MCL sprain in his right knee and will miss some time, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
  • MarJon Beauchamp (Bucks): Beauchamp is probable for Wednesday’s (Jan 25) game against Denver.
  • Serge Ibaka (Bucks): Ibaka is not expected to rejoin the team when they return to Milwaukee following a four-game road trip, according to Eric Nehm of The Athletic.
  • Bones Hyland (Nuggets): Hyland did not play in Tuesday’s (Jan. 24) game against New Orleans.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie remains without a timetable to make his NBA debut, according to Katy Winge of Altitude Sports.
  • Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets): Porter Jr. did not play in Tuesday’s (Jan. 24) game against New Orleans.
  • Jack White (Nuggets): White did not play in Tuesday’s (Jan 24) game against New Orleans.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (88/209) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,924/5,710) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,579/8,970) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 106.5 points per game (2,449 points/23 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 112.6

The Bucks are shooting 43% (887/2,053) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Bucks have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (942 points/23 games) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.4

The Bucks are shooting 45% (944/2,108) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (512 blocks/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (835 blocks/201 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (397 blocks/98 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (438 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,389 rebounds/200 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.0

The Bucks have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (4,665 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Bucks have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,675 rebounds/46 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Bucks have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (286 blocks/64 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.