Nuggets vs Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 11, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Suns are -3.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Thursday, May 11, 2023 at 10:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Denver Nuggets visit Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Suns are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 50-41 against the spread, while the Suns are 46-44 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+1.5 -105O 225.5 -110+110
Phoenix Suns -1.5 -115U 225.5 -110-135

Suns vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Suns will win Thursday‘s game with 58.7% confidence.

Suns vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.1% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Suns, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 88 games (+32.46 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 38 of their last 63 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.81 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+6.47 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+6.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+17.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+16.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games (+15.52 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 2Q Spread in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.53 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 50-41 (+4.9 Units / 4.84% ROI).

  • 60-32 against the Moneyline (+0.05 Units / 0.02% ROI)
  • 44-47 against the Over for game total points (-7.7 Units / -7.61% ROI)
  • 47-44 against the Under for game total points (-1.4 Units / -1.38% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 46-44 (-2.4 Units / -2.37% ROI).

  • 51-41 against the Moneyline (-0.65 Units / -0.28% ROI)
  • 48-41 against the Over for game total points (+2.9 Units / 2.87% ROI)
  • 41-48 against the Under for game total points (-11.8 Units / -11.66% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-25.25 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 91 games (-23.77 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 43 of their last 94 games (-23.52 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 86 games (-17.64 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 93 games (-15.97 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 88 games (-43.72 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 32 away games (-25.90 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 39 away games (-22.95 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 91 games (-17.57 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 42 games (-16.00 Units / -24% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Nuggets are 83-25 (.769) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .569

The Nuggets are 47-19 (.712) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets are 42-13 (.764) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Suns are 34-11 (.756) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Suns are 56-13 (.812) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Suns are 43-10 (.811) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

The Suns are 101-35 (.743) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

Injury Report: Suns vs. NuggetsThursday‘s Game, May 11

  • Chris Paul (Suns): Paul will be re-evaluated in a week according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
  • Deandre Ayton (Suns): Ayton is questionable for Thursday’s (May.11) game against Denver.
  • Denver Nuggets – No Injuries Reported

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (1,831/3,563) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (3,051 assists/ 1,561 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (2,145 assists/ 1,107 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (6,418 assists/ 3,072 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (3,196 assists/ 1,528 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (996 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (496 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 7.5 steals per game (887 steals/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Suns have averaged 7.8 steals per game (1,287 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns have blocked 432 shots this season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Suns have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,804 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.