Nuggets vs Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 07, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Suns are -2.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 8:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Denver Nuggets visit Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Suns are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 49-40 against the spread, while the Suns are 45-43 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+1.5 -115O 226.5 -115-105
Phoenix Suns -1.5 -105U 226.5 -115-115

Suns vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Suns will win Sunday‘s game with 56.4% confidence.

Suns vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Suns, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 61 of their last 86 games (+32.61 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.91 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+17.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games (+15.67 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 52 of their last 89 games (+11.05 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 49-40 (+5 Units / 5.05% ROI).

  • 59-31 against the Moneyline (+0.1 Units / 0.04% ROI)
  • 43-46 against the Over for game total points (-7.6 Units / -7.68% ROI)
  • 46-43 against the Under for game total points (-1.3 Units / -1.31% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 45-43 (-2.3 Units / -2.32% ROI).

  • 50-40 against the Moneyline (-0.65 Units / -0.28% ROI)
  • 47-40 against the Over for game total points (+3 Units / 3.03% ROI)
  • 40-47 against the Under for game total points (-11.7 Units / -11.82% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-25.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 94 games (-24.93 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 92 games (-23.52 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 84 games (-17.54 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 91 games (-15.87 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 86 games (-43.62 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 31 away games (-24.85 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 38 away games (-21.90 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 40 games (-18.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 44 away games (-16.77 Units / -32% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Denver Nuggets are 42-13 (.764) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 14.8 turnovers per game (2,433 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for third-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 69-24 (.742) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 51.1 rebounds per game (8,388 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th-lowest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 48-18 (.727) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Suns are 43-10 (.811) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

The Suns are 34-11 (.756) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Suns are 52-17 (.754) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Suns are 63-22 (.741) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Suns vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, May 7

  • Chris Paul (Suns): Paul will be re-evaluated in a week according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
  • Denver Nuggets – No Injuries Reported

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,378/10,546) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets have averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (3,051 assists/ 1,561 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (3,196 assists/ 1,528 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (4,479 assists/ 2,170 TOs) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (2,145 assists/ 1,107 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (496 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (329 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (500 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,804 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns have 1,804 steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Suns have averaged 5.2 blocks per game (428 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Suns have averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.