Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

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Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman looks at the scoreboard during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Stanford in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2023, 5:25 PM
  • Ohio State is a -3 point favorite vs. Notre Dame
  • Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBC/Peacock

The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in South Bend.

Ohio State is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ohio State-3 -11055.5 -110-160
Notre Dame +3 -11055.5 -110+135

Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 54.7% confidence.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 69.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Notre Dame, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Ohio State has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+2.80 Units / 1% ROI)

Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cade Stover has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best Notre Dame Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Notre Dame players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Audric Estime has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Sam Hartman has hit the Passing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Chris Tyree has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jayden Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Sam Hartman has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Ohio State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 1.33% ROI
  • Ohio State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Ohio State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

  • Notre Dame is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 13.16% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.95 Units / 44.83% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -51.69% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

#6 Ohio State is 15-1 (.938) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .440

#6 Ohio State is 12-1 (.923) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .412

#6 Ohio State is undefeated (9-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .569

#6 Ohio State is 21-4 (.808) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .485

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

#9 Notre Dame is 20-2 (.870) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .533

#9 Notre Dame is 16-2 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .497

#9 Notre Dame is 15-2 (.882) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .497

#9 Notre Dame is 19-4 (.826) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .563

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s WRs has gained 808 yards on 45 receptions (18.0 YPR) this season — tied for 12th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 1,217 passing yards in 4 games (304.2 YPG) this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 151.3 passing yards per game this season — third-best among P5 defenses.

Notre Dame has gained 1,207 yards on 75 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 964 passing yards in 3 games (321.3 YPG) this season — 17th-best among FBS teams. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 140.0 passing yards per game this season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs have 217.3 receiving yards per game this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 126.8 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for 13th-best among FBS WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

#6 Ohio State RBs have averaged 16.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (84 yards / 5 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0

#6 Ohio State WRs have caught 79 touchdown passes since the 2021 season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

#3 Ohio State Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (434 yards/21 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

#6 Ohio State WRs have caught 79 touchdown passes since the 2021 season– most among Power 5 Teams

#6 Ohio State QBs have 20 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame’s WRs has gained 808 yards on 45 receptions (18.0 YPR) this season — tied for 12th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 1,217 passing yards in 4 games (304.2 YPG) this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 151.3 passing yards per game this season — third-best among P5 defenses.

#9 Notre Dame TEs have caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame has gained 1,207 yards on 75 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.

#9 Notre Dame RBs have averaged 13.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (429 yards / 33 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.2

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Ohio State allowed 5 rushing TDs on 40 carries (8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.7

#3 Ohio State allowed first downs on 15% of rush attempts in the 2022 season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 23%

#3 Ohio State allowed 12 TDs in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1

#3 Ohio State allowed 6.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (214 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.6

#3 Ohio State allowed just 8.6 receiving yards per game (95/11) to RBs in the 2022 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 25.8

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Stats & Trends

#9 Notre Dame’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 11% of PATs since the 2021 season– tied for 5th highest in FBS; Average: 5%

#9 Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (23 completions/47 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– tied for 32nd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

#9 Notre Dame has allowed 140.0 Passing Yards per game (560/4) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 232.7

#9 Notre Dame has allowed 199.2 Passing Yards per game (3,386/17) since the 2022 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: 239.7

#9 Notre Dame has allowed first downs on 20% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 28%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.