This week, the college football betting world will turn its attention to Waco, Texas. The Baylor Bears will host their conference rival Oklahoma in Week 11. The Bears suffered a stunning loss to TCU last week while the Sooners rested.
Yet, for Oklahoma at Baylor, there is still a lot at stake. So, let’s take a closer look at the lines and odds for this crucial NCAAF football matchup.
The Oklahoma Sooners still need to make their case for the four-team playoffs. Coming in at 9-0, they rank No. 8 in the CFP.
Although they got help with Michigan State’s loss, the Sooners must rack up wins for any shot. But head coach Lincoln Riley isn’t worried about polls right now. Riley remains convinced the Sooners will be there in the end.
And if No. 12 ranked Baylor wants an invitation to the New Year’s Six, their only path is to win out the season. The stumble against TCU 30-28 last week made the road that much more difficult. Baylor at 7-2 sits third in the conference, having already lost to Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Matchup
The Oklahoma Sooners come into Waco after a late-season bye. While they sat, Baylor’s defense got lit up by TCU quarterback Chandler Morris for 461 yards. The Bears couldn’t contain the former Sooner, which cost them their second loss of the season.
For the Baylor Bears, QB Gerry Bohanon managed only 214 yards in the loss. However, with a critical game-ending interception, Baylor’s season aspirations took a huge hit.
In Week 9, Oklahoma rolled over Texas Tech 52-21 to improve to 6-0 in the conference. In that game, Caleb Williams passed for 402 yards. So for Oklahoma at Baylor, he’ll be looking for another big passing day.
Inside The Numbers
With their ability to chew up yardage and score points, it first appears that 5.5 points are a small spread. But the two teams’ records against the spread tell another story. And the Baylor Bears are 5-0 at home.
Baylor is 5-3 against the spread this season and 4-0 at home. In comparison, Oklahoma is 0-2 when favored on the road and 4-5 for the season. So from the numbers alone, the spread favors the Baylor Bears.
The over/under for this game is 63, which these two teams are more than capable of passing. However, both the Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor have gone over 6 out of 9 games this year. So I’m taking the over again for this matchup.
Oklahoma at Baylor (+5.5)
With a bet against the spread for Oklahoma at Baylor, the decision comes down to which team wants this game more. The Sooners come in rested and with a purpose to make the final four playoffs. They also beat TCU earlier this year, 52-31, the same team Baylor lost to last week.
Yet, the Baylor Bears will look for redemption from that stinging loss. They still have an opportunity to play in the New Year’s Six if they can win this week against the Sooners.
Picking Against the Spread
When the chance for an NCAA Football championship is on the line, the best teams rise to the occasion. Baylor can score with the Oklahoma Sooners for a while, but can they keep up for four quarters?
But I’m predicting the Bears will suffer their first home loss this season. And I’m betting the Oklahoma Sooners have the offense to prove they belong in the hunt for college football supremacy. So I’m betting on Oklahoma to win by at least two scores to cover the 5.5 points.
How do you see this Oklahoma at Baylor shaping up for college football betting this week? Have your say by opening an account at BetMGM sports betting and placing your bets on this season’s NCAAF action today.