- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Baltimore Orioles (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Orioles vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 21-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 16-16 ATS.
Orioles vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -115 | O 8 +100 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -120 | -225 |
Orioles vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 away games (+7.45 Units / 149% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Braves vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Max Fried | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 53% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 32 games (+15.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 48% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 18-13 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 11.46% ROI).
- 21-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 20.09% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.05 Units / 14.77% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -21.78% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 16-16 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 4.03% ROI).
- 22-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 18.11% ROI
- 19-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 17.19% ROI
- 12-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -25.63% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (26 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .321 — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .698 (30 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .392 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (12-for-30) against Dean Kremer’s elevated fastball this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .243 — fourth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (28 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on sliders this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .401 — fourth Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .391 (159 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .721 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (19/26) against Max Fried — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season (216 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (34/52) against Max Fried this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are 24-28 (.462) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Orioles are 74-3 (.961) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Orioles are 84-26 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Orioles are 5-2 (.714) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .601.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-17 (.595) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Braves are just 0-3 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .355 (721 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .795 (721 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 68% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .781 (383 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .809 (2,066 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Braves hitters are slugging .682 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .103 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 55% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have walked 19 of 282 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
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