- The Orioles are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Baltimore Orioles (-165) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+140) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Orioles vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 20-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 10-20 ATS.
Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 -105 | O 9 -105 | -165 |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | U 9 -115 | +140 |
Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+6.85 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.40 Units / 47% ROI)
Royals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Royals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Royals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Royals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.15 Units / 48% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 17-12 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 12.17% ROI).
- 20-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 22.94% ROI
- 17-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 15.89% ROI
- 11-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -22.88% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 10-20 against the Run Line (-13.35 Units / -36.48% ROI).
- 7-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -42.29% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 1.2% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -10.74% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .472 (17-for-36) against Kyle Gibson when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .077 against Kyle Gibson with RISP this season — second best among qualified SPs– 98th Percentile. Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with RISP last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% (160/274) vs left-handed batters this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 10th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed a slugging percentage of .397 (27 Total Bases / 68 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — ninth Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has a strike rate of 83% (76/92) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 27% (95 SO in 347 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .305 (39-for-128) against Zack Greinke this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (62/178) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are 23-28 (.451) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Orioles are 5-5 (.500) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Orioles are 32-9 (.780) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .654.
The Orioles are 9-75 (.107) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals are just 1-13 (.071) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Royals are just 5-51 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .346.
The Royals are just 4-9 (.308) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Royals are just 7-20 (.259) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 18% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .816 (426 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Orioles are batting .416 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Orioles hitters are slugging .465 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .270 (810 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .259 (496 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,096 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 8% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .120 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 15 of 101 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 694 of 7,405 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 152 of 1,682 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
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