- The Orioles are -200 favorites vs the Royals
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Baltimore Orioles (-200) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+165) on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Orioles vs Royals Over/Under is 13 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 20-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 11-20 ATS.
Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 -125 | O 13 -400 | -200 |
| Royals | +1.5 +105 | U 13 +310 | +165 |
Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.45 Units / 124% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.20 Units / 65% ROI)
Royals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -190 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Royals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+8.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 17-13 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 9.12% ROI).
- 20-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 18.58% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 12.22% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -19.06% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 11-20 against the Run Line (-12.35 Units / -32.63% ROI).
- 8-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -36.76% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -1.89% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -7.41% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grayson Rodriguez has thrown elevated pitches 54% of the time (46/86) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 32% (34 SO in 105 PAs) this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 54% (15 SO in 28 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has thrown fastballs up 66% of the time (135/206) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (14/52) against Jordan Lyles this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (30/115) against Jordan Lyles this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (6/31) against Jordan Lyles in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are 23-28 (.451) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Orioles are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Orioles are 73-3 (.961) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Orioles are 32-9 (.780) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .653.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals are just 2-13 (.133) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Royals are just 5-51 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Royals are just 8-20 (.286) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Royals are just 4-99 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .810 (433 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .350 (674 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Orioles hitters have 516 strikeouts in 2,143 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have chased 18% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 8% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .266 (531 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .273 (838 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Royals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .107 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (1414.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
The Orioles have won 61% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 9 of 51 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 15 of 101 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
Bet now on Orioles vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
