Packers Betting Trends When Aaron Rodgers Is Out

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Brett Hundley Packers
(Photo by Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Nov 03, 2021, 8:40 PM

Brett Hundley completed just 12 of 25 passes for 87 yards and zero touchdowns in his first career start, the Green Bay Packers’ home loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 7 of the 2017 season. It was the first of three losses in nine starts for the former fifth-round pick as Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with a broken collarbone.

Hundley’s miserable performance also allowed the favored Saints to cover the 3.5-point spread in NFL betting. It was the first of five ATS losses for Hundley in 2017, the last of which was a 24-point Week 17 loss to the Detroit Lions in which the Packers failed to cover +7.5 as the home underdog.

Rodgers hasn’t missed a start since then, starting all 54 regular-season and four playoff games since 2018. In Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs, however, the COVID-positive Rodgers will miss a start, forcing Jordan Love under center for his first career start. And like Hundley four years ago, Love is an underdog (+7 as of Wednesday night).

Since Rodgers took over in 2008, he’s missed 18 starts, all in the regular season. In those games, the Packers are 6-11-1 outright and 7-11 outright. Here’s the money line (ML) and ATS breakdown of those games:

YearOpponentQBML ResultATS Result
2017at LionsHundleyLossLoss
2017vs. VikingsHundleyLossLoss
2017at BrownsHundleyWinWin
2017vs. BucsHundleyWinWin
2017at SteelersHundleyLossWin
2017vs. RavensHundleyLossLoss
2017at BearsHundleyWinWin
2017vs. LionsHundleyLossLoss
2017vs. SaintsHundleyLossLoss
2013vs. SteelersFlynnLossLoss
2013at CowboysFlynnWinWin
2013vs. FalconsFlynnWinLoss
2013at LionsFlynnLossLoss
2013vs. VikingsTolzienPushLoss
2013at GiantsTolzienLossLoss
2013vs. EaglesWallaceLossLoss
2011vs. LionsFlynnWinWin
2010at PatriiotsFlynnLossWin

The Packers have an identical first-half ATS record, 7-11, and have covered the second-half spread in eight of the 18 games.

In failing to do anything through the air in his first career start, Hundley did his part to cash tickets for under bettors in the Packers’ 26-17 loss to the Saints. The over, however, hit in six of Hundley’s eight other starts in 2017, improving the over record to 12-6 when Rodgers doesn’t start, including 5-1 in games started by Matt Flynn. Flynn also went 6-0 on first-half overs, contributing 60 percent of the Packers’ 10 total first-half overs (10-8).

You can view updated odds for the Packers-Chiefs game and more NFL odds at the BetMGM sportsbook.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.