- The Dodgers are -155 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
- Watch the game on FOX
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 21-18 ATS.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Padres | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
Dodgers | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -155 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Dodgers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.10 Units / 73% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Outman has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+11.35 Units / 103% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 51% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.10 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 20-19 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -6.38% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 13-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -32.24% ROI
- 24-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 23.93% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 21-18 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 12.3% ROI).
- 24-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 5.32% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -13.36% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.3 MPH on inside pitches since last season (186 balls in play) — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 85.5
Opponents batted just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .152 (15 GB hits out of 99 GBs) against Joe Musgrove with runners on base since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,415/3,260) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 93rd Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 74% (161/218) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 against Julio Urias with RISP this season — ninth worst among qualified SPs– 14th Percentile. Opponents batted just .163 (15-for-92) against him with RISP last season — tied for second best among qualified SPs– 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (9/56) against Julio Urias on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (1,018/1,401) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
keys to the game – away
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Dodgers are 37-12 (.755) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Dodgers are 134-57 (.702) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Dodgers are 135-66 (.672) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Padres hitters have drawn 530 walks in 5,350 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 116 walks in 1,002 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Games involving the Padres have hit UNDER in 63% of their games (28.7% ROI) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have won 37% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres pitchers have walked 5 of 110 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Noah Syndergaard (Dodgers): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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