Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 13

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 13, 2023, 9:04 AM
  • The Dodgers are -155 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
  • Watch the game on FOX

The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 21-18 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -160O 8.5 -115+125
Dodgers -1.5 +135U 8.5 -105-155

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.10 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • James Outman has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+11.35 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Trayce Thompson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.10 Units / 13% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 20-19 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -6.38% ROI).

  • 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -13.52% ROI
  • 13-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -32.24% ROI
  • 24-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 23.93% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 21-18 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 12.3% ROI).

  • 24-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.25% ROI
  • 21-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 5.32% ROI
  • 17-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -13.36% ROI

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.3 MPH on inside pitches since last season (186 balls in play) — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 85.5

Opponents batted just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .152 (15 GB hits out of 99 GBs) against Joe Musgrove with runners on base since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 95th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,415/3,260) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 93rd Percentile.

Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 74% (161/218) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .312 against Julio Urias with RISP this season — ninth worst among qualified SPs– 14th Percentile. Opponents batted just .163 (15-for-92) against him with RISP last season — tied for second best among qualified SPs– 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (9/56) against Julio Urias on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (1,018/1,401) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

keys to the game – away

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Dodgers are 37-12 (.755) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

The Dodgers are 134-57 (.702) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Dodgers are 135-66 (.672) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Padres hitters have drawn 530 walks in 5,350 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have drawn 116 walks in 1,002 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Games involving the Padres have hit UNDER in 63% of their games (28.7% ROI) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

team hitters – home

Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Padres have won 37% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Padres pitchers have walked 5 of 110 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

team pitchers – home

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Noah Syndergaard (Dodgers): Finger, Day-to-Day
  • Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
  • David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.