- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN2
The San Diego Padres (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Tuesday, May 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 21-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 30-17 ATS.
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -105 | +130 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.05 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+19.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 41 games (+15.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+4.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 22-25 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -13.64% ROI).
- 21-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.85 Units / -21.66% ROI
- 14-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.15 Units / -39.91% ROI
- 31-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.85 Units / 31.29% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 30-17 against the Run Line (+11.6 Units / 19.81% ROI).
- 20-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 8.93% ROI
- 20-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 23-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 2.61% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (104/340) against Yu Darvish this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 57% of the time (93/162) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 57% of the time (93/162) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown off-speed pitches 83% of the time (30/36) when he’s behind in the count — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .114 (5 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .114 (5-for-44) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 45% (24 SO in 53 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 86th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 23 of 200 batters (12%) this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 2-4 (.333) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Padres are 8-1 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Padres are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Padres are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 11-21 (.344) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Nationals are just 25-43 (.368) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 36-70 (.340) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 3-5 (.375) after a win as favorites since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .599.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Padres hitters have drawn 556 walks in 5,524 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 93 strikeouts in 553 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have 68 extra-base hits out of 272 total hits (just 25%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 335 strikeouts in 1,764 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres have won just 17% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (113.5 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.4).
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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