- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN2
The San Diego Padres (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Thursday, May 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 22-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 31-18 ATS.
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -115 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -105 | +165 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 76.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+12.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+19.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games (+16.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.55 Units / 74% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 23-26 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -13.14% ROI).
- 22-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -21.38% ROI
- 15-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.35 Units / -38.54% ROI
- 32-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.85 Units / 30.1% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 31-18 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 18.59% ROI).
- 21-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 9.07% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -10.05% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 2.52% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 44% (114/258) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 39% (52/133) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (60/169) against Blake Snell when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 56% (489/867) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 37% of Jake Irvin’s pitches (125/338) over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strike rate of just 57% (193/338) over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (30/60) of opposing batters over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (29/170) against Jake Irvin over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 3-4 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Padres are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Padres are just 4-81 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 37-71 (.343) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 12-22 (.353) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Nationals are just 24-117 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Nationals are just 25-47 (.347) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Padres are batting just .205 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .615 (565 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Padres are batting just .204 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 71 extra-base hits out of 281 total hits (just 25%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .358 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Nationals hitters have just 101 strikeouts in 591 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (113.5 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.5).
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,198 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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