- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 19-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 19-17 ATS.
Padres vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -130 |
Padres vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 84% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.60 Units / 75% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Twins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Twins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 32 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+3.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 19-17 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -3.54% ROI).
- 19-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 13-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -26.21% ROI
- 21-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 17.87% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 19-17 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 4.57% ROI).
- 19-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -17.52% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 9.24% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (80/427) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .160 (12-for-75) against Seth Lugo with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .242 — 97th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (132/280) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .244 (86 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .329 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has allowed a .700 SLG vs right-handed batters (second worst)– second Percentile and just .227 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth best among qualified SPs)– 85th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (3-for-33) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 45% (78/174) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (47/130) against Pablo Lopez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 27-3 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Padres are 86-10 (.896) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Padres are 38-12 (.760) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 4-3 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Twins are just 14-42 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .213 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Padres are batting just .234 at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters have drawn 520 walks in 5,242 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .127 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins are batting just .198 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Twins are batting just .095 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .174.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .412 (728 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Padres pitchers have walked 4 of 100 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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