- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Twins
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland
- Watch the game on BSN
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 18-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 19-16 ATS.
Padres vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 9 +100 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -120 | -115 |
Padres vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.95 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.50 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Louie Varland | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Twins Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 18-17 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -5.86% ROI).
- 18-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -10.06% ROI
- 13-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -23.85% ROI
- 20-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 15.57% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 19-16 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 7.08% ROI).
- 19-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -5.83% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -14.86% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 6.75% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (7/29) against Michael Wacha’s changeup this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 52% — second Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (370/772) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (83/174) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (41/276) against Michael Wacha on elevated fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 33% (27/82) against Louie Varland over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Louie Varland did not induce opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 11 opportunities (0%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 14th Percentile.
Louie Varland allowed three-ball counts to 13% of batters they faced (6/47 PA’s) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 92nd Percentile.
Division opponents batted .350 against Louie Varland (7-for-20) over the last 30 days of the regular season (1 games) — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 12th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 23-25 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Padres are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Padres are 53-42 (.558) on the road since last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-42 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Twins are 4-3 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .234 at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters are slugging just .352 on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .109 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Twins are batting just .133 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Twins are batting just .220 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .128 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.33 (313.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Twins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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