Patriots at Bills: NFL Wild Card Betting Picks and Preview

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(AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Jan 10, 2022, 4:43 PM

The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills once this season, but that win came in a game that was severely affected by 40 mph wind gusts. Due to weather conditions, the Patriots only attempted three passes and had 46 rushes for 222 yards in a 14-10 win.

In this weekend’s playoff matchup, Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite according to the NFL betting odds from BetMGM.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Game Information

  • Date: Saturday, January 15th
  • Time: 8:15 P.M. EST
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
  • Line: Buffalo Bills -4.5

Buffalo Will Need to Limit New England’s Running Game

When Buffalo last played New England, the weather did not impact the game, and Buffalo put up 33 points en route to a 12-point victory. Josh Allen passed for 314 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

New England is a run-first team that ranks 25th in the NFL in pass attempts per game and averages 28.8 rushing attempts per game, which is the eighth-highest in the league. The Bills have only allowed 97.7 rushing yards per game over their last three contests.

Buffalo also allows the fewest passing yards per game, so if the Bills can stop the Patriots from running and force them to pass, I’m not too fond of the Patriots’ chances to keep up.

New England May Struggle With the Bills Pass Offense

The New England offense ranks 14th in the NFL in passing yards per game and eighth in rushing yards. This year, the Patriots have played well offensively, averaging 27.2 points per game. However, that number falls to 22.6 points when the Patriots are on the road, as they will be on Saturday.

The Patriots are second in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game this season but are 11th in that category over the last three games. Buffalo averages the ninth-most passing yards per game (252) and ranks fifth in the NFL in pass attempts per game. New England also struggles to put pressure on quarterbacks, ranking 19th in sacks (36).

Patriots at Bills Could Be a High-Scoring Affair

Oddsmakers have set the point total for this game at 44. The Bills and Patriots played a game with 54 total points three weeks ago.

Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in touchdowns per game and sixth in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage. New England is 11th in red-zone touchdown percentage, and over the past three games, they’ve scored a touchdown on 92.31% of their trips.

Reviewing the Patriots at Bills Matchup

The Patriots at Bills matchup should be one of the highlights of Wild Card Weekend.

I expect Josh Allen and the Bills to win by a touchdown or more. I don’t believe that the Patriots can keep up with the Bills’ offensive firepower.

What do you think? You can wager on this game and other Wild Card Weekend matchups by visiting the BetMGM online sportsbook. Sign up for an account today for a risk-free initial bet of up to $1,000.

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About the Author

BetMGM Staff

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.