- The Packers are -3 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
The New England Patriots visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers on Aug. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Green Bay.
The Packers are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Packers Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +3 -110 | 36.5 -105 | +130 |
| Packers | -3 -110 | 36.5 -115 | -160 |
Patriots vs. Packers Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this preseason game with 56.5% confidence.
Patriots vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Packers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- DeVante Parker has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Watson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- A.J. Dillon has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- A.J. Dillon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- A.J. Dillon has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Patriots went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Packers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Packers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
- Packers are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Packers are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.
The Patriots were winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .215.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .301.
The Patriots were 2-4 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Packers were 1-7 (.125) when scoring less than 22 points in the 2022 season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .274.
The Packers were 4-2 (.667) vs bottom 10 run offenses in the 2022 season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .541.
The Packers were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Packers were 4-7 (.364) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2022 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .478.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers went three and out on 5.1% of their drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. Patriots forced three and outs on 15.6% of opponent drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Packers scored on 55% of their drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — second-best in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
Packers WRs were targeted 11 times inside the 10 yardline in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Patriots allowed 6 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for second-most in NFL.
The Patriots turned the ball over 26 times last season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Packers forced 26 turnovers last season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
Patriots TEs averaged just 3.2 yards after the catch in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Packers allowed just 2.6 yards after catch per reception to TEs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots ran successful plays on 34% of plays in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Patriots converted first downs on just 27 of 117 plays (23%) in the red zone in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 34% of plays in close and late situations in the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers went three and out on 5% of their drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Packers have been flagged 61 times on offense since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Packers have averaged just 14.5 offensive penalty yards per game (494/34) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20.1.
The Packers ran 60% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 76.3 in the red zone (129 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.9.
Only 30% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in their own territory in close and late situations in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 29% on 3rd and short in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Packers defense has allowed an average time of possession of 27 min and 25 s since the 2021 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 30 min 36s.
The Packers defense allowed first downs on just 29% of plays on 3rd and short in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
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