5 Candidates to Win This Year’s FedEx Cup

If you need a little refresher on how this year’s FedEx Cup champion will be determined, you’re excused, because it’s not an easy thing to keep track of these days.

Last year was the first without a staggered scoring start since 2019, as every player in the Tour Championship began the week at even-par. And match play reportedly won’t start until 2028, which means that once again this time, all 30 players who get into the season finale at East Lake will have an equal opportunity to win the FedEx Cup.

Let’s look at five potential betting options, from top to (nearly) bottom of the board.

5 Candidates to Win This Year’s FedEx Cup

Scottie Scheffler (+350)

By every statistical measure, Scheffler has been the best player on the PGA Tour this season. Except, of course, the one metric which has so curiously eluded him since mid-January — victories.

The world’s No. 1-ranked player has made 16 consecutive starts without a win, which at least leaves him as the guy most due for one based on his performance, if not also the most motivated. In a regular year – and by regular, I mean one in which Scottie is finishing off a 5-6 win campaign while dusting off a place on the mantle for another POY award – I’d suggest a fade in this market based solely on format alone.

Prior to last year, the staggered scoring start essentially served as a reverse handicap, giving a top player in the standings a much better opportunity to win it all. Now that everyone starts at even-par for a second straight year, it will theoretically be tougher for Scheffler, but at the end of a season which will be disappointing for the lack of titles, it’s easy to see him still driven to get this one.

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

As I wrote in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship preview, Schauffele entered the recent Rocket Classic admitting he’d gotten too technical with his swing, then concluded it with a runner-up result and a renewed confidence in a maneuver which he said felt freer during that week.

He will return to East Lake for the finale in a few weeks, a course where three times he’s held or shared the low 72-hole total, five times been inside the top-three and seven times been seventh or better in eight career starts. There are two main things I’m looking for in this market – one is players still champing at the bit to get a victory and the other is course history. Schauffele’s got ‘em both.

Sam Burns (+1800)

I’d be doing a disservice to the process if I didn’t list my favorite play for this week’s FedEx St. Jude as a FedEx Cup candidate, as well. Now, I get it: At eighth in the standings, Burns is going to reach the finale whether he wins in Memphis or withdraws or anything in between.

For a player who hasn’t won in a few years, though, one could beget another, as we’ve seen a whopping dozen times in the first 19 years of the playoffs, as Rory McIlroy (twice), Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Camilo Villegas, Henrik Stenson, Billy Horschel, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland have each won multiple playoff events in the same year.

Justin Thomas (+5500)

At 39th on the FedEx Cup standings, Thomas is almost assured of getting into the BMW Championship, which is – breaking news here – sort of a prerequisite for winning the whole thing. Despite a T-14 result last week in Greensboro and top-20s in seven of his last nine starts, Thomas’ approach play hasn’t been quite as adept as we’ve seen in previous seasons, but the game as a whole has been solid, if not spectacular.

What I like here – besides a decent price in this market – is that he might have a little more gas left in the tank after starting his season two months late following last fall’s back surgery. He just needs to move up nine spots on the points list over the next two weeks, then he’s got as much of a chance as anybody to win at East Lake.

Sungjae Im (+30000)

Look, we weren’t letting you leave this page without offering up a massive longshot, so let’s take a gander at Im, who has three top-15 finishes in his last four starts. At 53rd in the current standings, he’s going to need to get to work over these next two weeks, so there’s a massive leap of faith involved here, but if he does get to East Lake, he’s had 72-hole finishes of second and sixth among his seven career starts there.

There’s a decent chance this one is dead money before we even get to the finale, but you’re not getting to this price on anyone who’s currently guaranteed to be there.