5 Longshots to Target at the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition

min read
Tom Kim, of South Korea, gestures after making a putt on the 10th hole during the second round of the Wells Fargo Championship golf tournament at Quail Hollow Friday, May 10, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C.
(AP Photo/Erik Verduzco)
Jason Sobel @JasonSobelGolf Jul 31, 2024, 10:56 AM
  • The Men's Olympic Golf Competition is Aug. 1-4.
  • Why Tom Kim is worth a longshot bet.

The term โ€œlongshotโ€ is often ambiguous in golf betting, as it means something different to different people.

Some might interpret it as any wager outside the favorite(s). Others might consider it something beyond the top tier. And, of course, there are those who truly define this in its most literal construct, meaning only those with the biggest odds.

In my usual previews of full-field events, I try to limit โ€œlongshotโ€ plays to those at 100/1 or longer. For more condensed fields, I might move the goalposts to 50/1 or so.

In previewing this weekโ€™s Menโ€™s Olympic Competition, Iโ€™ll go even shorter.

There are only 60 players in this weekโ€™s field and โ€“ much like, say, the Masters โ€“ there are a handful of players toward the bottom of the list who probably donโ€™t stand much of a chance, no matter the odds.

As such, Iโ€™ll shift the โ€œlongshotโ€ cutoff to 25/1 this week, but my five selections still include at least one massive price.

5 Longshots to Target at the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition

Tom Kim (+2500)

There are two common themes throughout my selections this week. The first, as I wrote about in my full preview, is course fit; this is the perfect event to choose some elite players who only lack distance amongst the worldโ€™s best. The second is momentum.

Specifically, I want to target those who are in form, yet havenโ€™t crossed over into the winnerโ€™s circle yet this year. Kim certainly fits this idea, as he owns a playoff loss at the Travelers Championship and T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open among his last seven starts. For a young player, his game travels remarkably well, including a T-6 in the Open de France on this very golf course last fall.

Alex Noren (+3300)

Granted, it was six years ago, but Noren has already enjoyed his fair share of spoils at Le Golf National. He won the Open de France that year in tough conditions, posting a score of just 7-under for four rounds, then followed with a 2-1-0 record two months later at the Ryder Cup, defeating Bryson DeChambeau in a singles match which didnโ€™t have any real impact on the overall result, but did serve to epitomize the Europeansโ€™ tact over the Americansโ€™ brawn.

Despite being a top-12 player in the world ranking at that point, it can be argued that the 42-year-old Noren is currently playing some of the best golf of his career, with 11 top-25 finishes in his last 14 starts. That hasnโ€™t yet resulted in many title contentions โ€“ those 11 top-25s include just a single top-five โ€“ but his consistency and prior success on this course should leave him as a Collin Morikawa-lite type of play. I like a small wager on him to win gold, but donโ€™t be afraid to back it up with a play for silver or bronze, as well.

Corey Conners (+3300)

Thereโ€™s no way to measure certain intangibles, but I do believe that how much a player wants to win a medal will have a direct correlation to his performance. That might sound like naรฏve analysis, but get each of these guys on some truth serum and youโ€™d find that some rate this possibility as level with specific major championships, while others see it as simply a quirky interlude before heading back to the day job.

Thereโ€™s no right or wrong answer, however, I do think Conners will take a little extra pride into this week. These are important times for Canadian golf, with his fellow Olympian Nick Taylor winning their national championship last summer and the Presidents Cup in Montreal later this year. In a growing group of talented pros, Conners is probably the best of the bunch โ€“ one of the gameโ€™s best ball-strikers who struggles on the greens.

Those struggles, though, have dissipated recently, as heโ€™s gained strokes on the greens in four of his last six; unsurprisingly, none of those have resulted in anything outside the top-25. Iron play will once again be at a premium this week and there are few who flush it like Conners.

Victor Perez (+8000)

Iโ€™ve already written about motivation and determination serving as bigger factors than other weeks, and there are few who should embody these qualities like those competing for the host country. Perez is joined by Matthieu Pavon as Franceโ€™s inclusions here and while they each make some sense, Iโ€™ll stick with the one who owns slightly bigger odds. Itโ€™s been a hit-or-miss type of season for Perez on the PGA Tour, epitomized by his last half-dozen starts, which include three top-12s, but also a pair of missed cuts.ย 

What weโ€™ve found is that the iron play is usually sound and if/when the putter cooperates, he can contend for a title. With the home crowd behind him, I like taking a chance that the man given the opportunity to hit the first tee shot of Thursdayโ€™s opening round will be buoyed up this leaderboard.

Shubhankar Sharma (+25000)

While Iโ€™ll admit it would take a shocking display for Sharma to claim the gold medal for India, I donโ€™t think itโ€™s too far-fetched to believe he captures silver or bronze and I really like him for finishing position plays. With only 60 players in this weekโ€™s field, a top-20 finish merely means beating two-thirds of the players, some of whom will already be punching above their weight in this type of event.

Sharma has easily been inside that top one-third in each of his last three starts, parlaying a T-5 at the Italian Open into results of T-39 at the Scottish Open and T-19 at The Open against stellar fields. I love the plus-money top-20 play here and donโ€™t hate the big-money price on him to claim one of the medals.

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About the Author

Jason Sobel

Read More @JasonSobelGolf

Jason Sobel is a Brand Ambassador for BetMGM. He joins after six years with Action Network. Prior to Action, Jason spent a total of 17 years in two stints at ESPN (1997-2011; 2015-18) and four years at Golf Channel (2011-15). He also currently works as a host for "Hitting the Green" on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio and contributes to the channel's on-site coverage during major championships. He's won four Sports Emmy awards, more than a dozen Golf Writers Association of America accolades and has earned an honorable mention in the Best of American Sportswriting series.

Jason Sobel is a Brand Ambassador for BetMGM. He joins after six years with Action Network. Prior to Action, Jason spent a total of 17 years in two stints at ESPN (1997-2011; 2015-18) and four years at Golf Channel (2011-15). He also currently works as a host for "Hitting the Green" on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio and contributes to the channel's on-site coverage during major championships. He's won four Sports Emmy awards, more than a dozen Golf Writers Association of America accolades and has earned an honorable mention in the Best of American Sportswriting series.