Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions, Best Bets

It is another PGA Tour signature event this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill.

Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +350.

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, known for its thick rough and also the potential for windy conditions. If the winds pick up and the greens get firm and fast like usual, it’s easy to see the winning score failing to reach double-digits.

This week will be similar to a major, where all facets of a player’s game will be tested.

It won’t be a case where a player can solely rely on their length off the tee, for example.

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green (on difficult courses), Proximity: 200+ yards, par-5 scoring and Bogey Avoidance.

In addition, course history is something to consider more than other events.

*odds as of March 3

Arnold Palmer Invitational Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 22.22% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 10%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

Rory McIlroy Outright Winner (+900)

While he’s yet to win in 2026, McIlroy is playing extremely well, particularly with his irons.

In eight rounds on the PGA Tour this season, he’s gained over one stroke per round on Strokes Gained: Approach. He hasn’t done that since May 2024.

Additionally, according to Fantasy National, over his last 20 rounds, McIlroy ranks second in the field in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. That will be important at Bay Hill this week.

The biggest question with McIlroy is his lack of recent success at this event. He’s finished T-15 and T-21 the last two years, but prior to that, he had a stretch of seven straight appearances of T-13 or better, including a win in 2018.

Not only is McIlroy coming off a runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational in his last PGA Tour start, but he also won the Seminole Pro-Member event Monday with his father.

Bottom line, he’s playing very well, and this is a course he should have no issue continuing that success.

Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 Finish (+138)

The old saying goes, “If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.”

That is what is happening with Fleetwood. He’s finished inside the top 10 in five straight PGA Tour events dating back to last season. Overall, he’s finished inside the top 10 in eight of his last 12 starts worldwide.

Specific to Bay Hill and this event, he has three top 10s lifetime, and finished T-11 last year.

Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish (+125)

Spieth is certainly trending in the right direction. In four starts this season, he has three finishes T-24 or better, highlighted by a T-12 at the Genesis Invitational in his last start.

He gained 0.39 on Strokes Gained: Approach at the Genesis, the most he’s had at an event since the U.S. Open last year.

At Bay Hill, he has two T-4 finishes in three appearances.

This feels like a week for Spieth to build on his recent momentum.