Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

As we inch closer toward next week’s Players Championship, right into next month’s Masters Tournament, and three more majors in subsequent months, the PGA Tour continues to drop breadcrumbs at some big-time venues as to which players will be best-suited for the most important events.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the correlation between winners at Riviera and those at Augusta National. This week’s host course is Bay Hill Club & Lodge, site of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, of course, which so often plays like a U.S. Open Lite.

Like any tournament, scoring at this one is dependent on course conditions and weather, though there seems to be a greater dispersion rate at Bay Hill than most others.

Get a year like 2022, when the wind is blowing and the greens are baked, and you’ll find Scottie Scheffler atop the final leaderboard with a four-round total of 5-under. Get one like 2024, though, when everything was much more benign, and you’ll see Scheffler set the pace with a score that’s 10 shots better.

Astute readers will note that there is a common denominator in each of those results – and yes, it’ll factor into the selections I’m about to make below.

Much like the recent festivities at the Genesis Invitational, this week’s signature event features a limited field with a cut to the top-50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead through 36 holes.

It’s not much, but kudos to Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer (posthumously, though you know he would’ve argued for it) for ensuring their tourneys at least have some sort of cut, so they’re not doling out prize money to some guy who posts four rounds of 79.

One other note: This week marks the return of Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im, each of whom is making his season debut after returning from injury. Neither will be on my short list this week (or, likely, for a little while), but much like Xander Schauffele, who returned at this event last year after two months away due to injury, an early-season absence sometimes isn’t the worst thing in the world for a player.

From the physical advantage of feeling fresh later in the year to the mental edge of being motivated to catch up with their peers, Thomas and Im should pop on leaderboards at some point, much as Schauffele did with a victory and three top-10s in his final three starts of last year.

Let’s get to those picks, with a very chalky outright play to kick things off.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+350)

After a few years of unwittingly receiving comparisons to Tiger Woods, perhaps it was only fitting that Scheffler lost his streak of 18 consecutive top-10s at Riviera, a course which always beguiled the tournament host, despite — or maybe because of — his close-knit ties to the course.

There are more reasons to back Scottie this week than simply a connection to Tiger, but it doesn’t hurt that on four separate occasions, Woods overcame a losing effort at Riv to triumph at Bay Hill just a few weeks later. (He won the API a total of eight times, but didn’t play in L.A. before those last four.) Long story short, there’s some rationale behind taking the world’s best player in his next start after a disappointing performance at Riv.

In five career appearances at Bay Hill, Scheffler hasn’t finished worse than T-11 – and his two victories came in each of the last two even-numbered years, if you’re into that sort of thing. The best reason, though, to back him at this one is simple: Bay Hill is often the closest thing to a major championship setup on the annual PGA Tour schedule, a place where the cream usually rises to the top of the leaderboard.

After winning his first start of the year for the first time at The American Express, there was talk of Scottie potentially reaching a double-digit win total this season. He’s now 0-for-his-last-3, with a pair of come-from-behind top-fives and that share of 12^th at the Genesis.

It might seem like he triumphs half the time he tees it up, but a win this week puts him well ahead of his 21.8 percent clip in official events over the past four years. The price is understandably short and it’s understandable if you want to wait for another poor first round to get a better number. (More on that below.)

I’m not a fan of eating the chalk, either, but the world’s best player on a beefy course against a limited field feels like an even better bet than trying to catch him at another major championship.

Aggressive Pick: Robert MacIntyre (+4000) and Harris English (+4500)

The odds listed above are in the outright market, but if you’re like me and invested in Scottie this week, then the “Without Scheffler” market feels like the right way to play ‘em. My thought process here aligns with that pick: I want ball-striking specialists who don’t make too many mistakes and tend to fare well on difficult setups.

MacIntyre and English both fit that model. Let’s start with the Scot, who was runner-up at Oakmont last year, one of five top-10s he’s posted at majors in just 19 career starts. He admittedly owns limited experience at this event, but followed a T-36 in his debut five years ago with a T-11 last year. And while the iron play hasn’t been quite up to his standards lately, the same could be said entering this event last year, before finding it here in his adopted hometown.

English has been remarkably consistent over the season’s first two months, with all five results between 22^nd and 28^th place. He also has plenty of major championship chops, finishing top-10 at the U.S. Open in three of the past six years and claiming a pair of runners-up at two other majors last year. While he only has two top-10s and five top-25s in 13 career starts at Bay Hill, a share of second place three years ago should give us reason for optimism this week.

And a special shoutout here to Keith Mitchell, who was the last player to qualify for this week’s field. I’ve fallen into the Cashmere Keith trap many times in the past, but now that his strong tee-to-green game is complemented by a new putter, I think last week’s top-10 could be the start of some big things for him. If you’re looking for a big longshot in this category, he’s my play this week — and he certainly works for top-10/20 props, as well.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+275)

This was a toss-up here between Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy, with the tiebreaker essentially being only that the former has slightly longer odds in this market. Even before Tommy won for the first time on U.S. soil at last year’s Tour Championship, I’d always believed that he’d someday get a win at Bay Hill, as the course just seems to suit his game.

It wouldn’t surprise me if that happens this week, but when you’ve got a short favorite on the outright card, it’s near-impossible to also add the guy with third-shortest odds. I’d rather take Fleetwood for top-five, as he was T-11 here last year and owns results of T-4 and T-7 in his last two starts.

Aggressive Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+350)

I’m going to repeat myself here, but just as I wrote about Fleetwood, I’ve similarly always thought Fitzpatrick was ripe for a win here someday. He’s a guy we love targeting on difficult setups and it’s shown in his results at this one, with a runner-up in 2019 as part of four top-10s and seven top-25s in 11 career appearances.

Fitz comes into this one in solid form, as well, going 9^th-14^th-24^th in his last three starts. Again, if you’re avoiding Scheffler in the outright market, he’s not a bad play there, but I’ll settle for the without market and top-five plays instead. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Young (+250)

If there’s a theme amongst the picks so far, it’s that I’m not venturing too far down the board for any contenders. I’m hardly alone in believing that last year’s maiden victory and ensuing Ryder Cup performance would propel Young into the next echelon this season, and I still think he’s a strong bet in the futures market to win a major.

Perhaps it’ll take a victory at something a little more significant than the Wyndham Championship before that happens and one at a PGA Tour signature event – especially this signature event – would certainly qualify. He hasn’t been great here the last couple of years, but finishes of 13^th-10^th in his first two API starts prove that his game should fit.

Aggressive Pick: Sepp Straka (+750)

There will be plenty of focus on Shane Lowry this week after his Cognizant Classic meltdown, but there should also be some discussion about how he’s finally figured out this course. After four missed cuts and a 67^th place in his first five starts at Bay Hill, he’s finished T-3 and T-7 the past two years.

All of which should have you asking one simple question: Why are we discussing this in a section about Straka? Well, for as much as Lowry has seemingly figured things out here, his Ryder Cup teammate might be enjoying a parallel trajectory at this tourney. Straka’s career at Bay Hill started eerily similar to Lowry, as he also missed four cuts, then posted a 57^th place finish in his fifth.

Last year, he opened with a 77, and it looked like another impending disappointment, but three really strong rounds led to a top-five result. Just a few weeks removed from a runner-up at Pebble Beach, Straka is another on my list who tends to play well in tougher environments.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+115)

For the more conservative bettors amongst us, I’m a big fan of plus-money top-20 plays in these limited-field events, where a player only needs to beat 75 percent of his peers to cash these tickets. It’s been a rough start to the year for Aberg, who was forced to WD from The AmEx due to illness, then MC’d the next week.

Since then, he’s at least gotten progressively better, with a T-37 at Pebble and T-20 Riv, during which he gained strokes in all four major categories. There shouldn’t be any questions about his talent, even if the performance hasn’t equaled it so far, and I want to invest a little in Aberg before he starts playing his best golf, and that price shortens up again. In three career starts here, he’s finished just a shot or two outside of the top-20 each time, so here’s hoping he can get it across the line this time.

Aggressive Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+225)

If you’ve gotten this far, then I at least owe you some semblance of an underdog and while I scoured the numbers for guys such as Andrew Novak, Tom Hoge and Kevin Roy – and I do think each one has a bit of value in the top-20 market – I just couldn’t get away from Hisatsune, who’s been a revelation this season.

He’s posted three top-10s in five starts, including a share of runner-up honors at the Farmers Insurance Open, vaulting himself into these signature events for the first time.

While I had a little trepidation in thinking that his performance was due to some West Coast bias, missed cuts at the Cognizant and Players last year were counteracted by a top-five at the Valspar Championship, which hopefully proves his game travels to the Sunshine State. He’s been better than field average both off the tee and on approach in every start this year – and if he does that again, he should be in contention for another top-20.

Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+1000)
That’s right – I’m taking the same Scottie Scheffler for FRL who’s been dreadful (in relation to his standards) during first rounds in his last three starts. After the second of those three, I went on record as saying it was more coincidence than recurring trend, but I’ll admit his third in a row without breaking par is at least of some concern.

Even so, I’d rather play a regression to the mean here on a player who led the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average during each of the last three seasons. Helping matters is that recent FRLs at the API have been a who’s who of stars, without a single Austin Smotherman on the board. (More on him shortly.) Over the last five years, FRL tickets have been cashed here by Rory McIlroy and Corey Conners (2021), McIlroy again (2022), Jon Rahm (2023), Shane Lowry (2024) and Wyndham Clark (2025).

Sure, some of these can be chalked up to this tournament’s elevation as a signature event, largely devoid of many underdogs, but there’s still something to be said for this recent list, with each R1 leader posting a score between 65 and 67. Scheffler has often repeated some form of the you-can’t-win-it-on-Thursday-you-can-only-lose-it cliché which so many others have echoed – not the least of which was Woods, whom I’ve often likened to a prizefighter in that he knew he only had to throw jabs in the opening round and didn’t need to land any haymakers.

This week feels different, though, as I have to imagine Scottie wants to prove something to himself, if not the rest of us. I’m still not buying that the world’s best player has encountered some sort of kryptonite on Thursdays. If you can’t bring yourself to buy the short number in the outright market, this offers another spot to invest in him with slightly longer odds.

Aggressive Pick: Rickie Fowler (+4500)

The problem with hitting a triple-digit play for FRL – as we did with Smotherman in last week’s Cognizant Classic preview – is trying to back it up with another aggressive hit in this market. Just as I believe there will be a regression to the mean in Scheffler’s first-round performance, I similarly believe there will be one with my FRL selections, so let that serve as a caveat emptor for all those pining for a second straight hit here.

Despite his friendship with Palmer before the tournament host’s death, Fowler has never fared very well at Bay Hill, posting just one top-10 and four top-25s in 13 career appearances. He does, though, have first-round scores of 67 and 68 on his profile and already posted an opening 67 at The AmEx and 66 at Pebble Beach this season.

For a popular player who usually has such a spotlight on him, Rickie has quietly enjoyed a very nice start to this campaign, with three top-20s and nothing worse than T-28 in four starts so far. As I wrote above, recent history suggests we shouldn’t delve too deep for FRL picks here, but I do believe Fowler can make a run at it this week.