Bank of Utah Championship Betting Preview: Is Jackson Koivun Worth a Pick?

Like most people reading this, I knew before last week that Jackson Koivun is a special player. I believed his recent 3M Open victory would be the first of many; I thought his putting stroke might be a superpower on the level of early-career Jordan Spieth.

I did not, however, realize the amount of swag this 21-year-old has.

As it turns out, so much swag that we can debate which power move on the final hole of his singles match against Si Woo Kim featured more of it – the stomp off the tee box right after impact or the Tiger-like club twirl after his beautiful approach shot.

In the post-round winners’ press conference, nearly every player spoke about him not only with high praise, but what can only be termed as bemusement, as if they can’t even fathom how talented he is.

When it comes to this week’s Bank of Utah Championship, if you want to take Koivun as a single-bullet play on the pre-tourney favorite at +1100, I certainly won’t talk you out of it.

Begrudgingly, I’m instead going to bank on a Presidents Cup hangover — the figurative kind, of course — and try to hit a better price further down the board, but I’ll readily admit this might prove to be a foolish strategy by Sunday evening.

If there’s one thing which might ultimately prove Koivun to be a golfing mortal, it’s the fact that there are so many other young players who are already performing – and will continue to perform – at such a high level.

Among them is Ben James (+1600), who owns a pair of top-three results in his last two starts and a trio of top-fours in his last five. I’m projecting here, obviously, but if James continues from his torrid pro start and is named to next year’s Ryder Cup team, he might have Koivun to thank for showing that a guy right out of college can succeed in a major team competition. There’s a great chance his ascendancy takes another step this week, as he’s only five points behind the favorite in the outright market.

I’m largely targeting big hitters at Black Desert Resort this week, much like defending champion Michael Brennan, and while James isn’t quite as long off the tee as you might believe – though 305.6 per drive ain’t exactly short — credit to Rob Bolton of PGATour.com, who points out that he’d be leading the league in driving accuracy and greens in regulation had he played enough events. I know we say this about a lot of these youngsters, but it’s tough to believe he’s going much longer without getting into the winner’s circle.

Entering this year, I thought Marco Penge (+2500) was going to be a slam-dunk, no-doubt-about-it high-level player on this side of the pond, but injury and illness largely kept him from showing off his best stuff. After failing to miss the FedEx Cup playoffs, he went back to the DP World Tour and posted finishes of T-6 and T-18, then came back to the U.S. and went T-10 at the Biltmore. He’s running hot right now and as we’ve seen when he’s playing well, the ceiling is extremely high.

I’ve stepped down a bit from my personal Davis Thompson (+3500) soapbox, but I’m still buying low as his stock starts creeping higher. He’s another big hitter whose approach game has been very good over the past three months. The question for him is always about the flatstick, which leaves me rating him just a bit below some others in this outright market, but he could be worth a live play if the number drifts a little bit.

I think there are some comparisons to be made between Brennan and former KFT POY Johnny Keefer (+4000). They’re friends, having played the Zurich Classic together earlier this season, and while Brennan owns more firepower and has enjoyed a greater ceiling so far in his young PGA Tour career, Keefer is a boom-or-bust option who might make some sense as an outright play, if not for finishing position bets.

Everything I wrote about Thompson above can serve as a copy/paste job for Pierceson Coody (+6000), except for the fact that they seem to be two trains running in opposite directions, though one of ‘em has tickets on sale for half the price.

It’s tough to talk Utah golf without thinking of Tony Finau (+10000). It wasn’t so long ago that I thought he was something close to a top-five talent in the world — at least in the eye test if not algorithmically, as he maxed out at No. 9 in the OWGR. He’s down to 149th now and from an outsider’s perspective, there doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of this tunnel, as he’s volleyed between putting one-handed and with his eyes closed and anything else that might spark a breakthrough.

Quite frankly, there’s no other event, anywhere, in which I’d back Finau right now – and if I’m doing it this week, then I’m going to close my eyes, too — but back home in Utah with this type of number next to his name, it’s tough to ignore. If this tourney had been around a half-decade ago, he would’ve been a single-digit favorite, which I suppose means we’re getting a bargain, even if there’s a massive buyer-beware attached.

Everyone loves betting an underdog, but the problem with these Fall Series events is that without many top-level players, there are so many guys wedged into the mid-tier and the triple-digit prices are reserved for those who are really struggling with their games.

Of course, that won’t keep me from taking a shot. Perhaps the wide-open fairways of Black Desert will negate a usual variable. He’s missed the cut in four straight largely because of poor tee-to-green play, however I still believe Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+15000) has some staying power at this level and don’t mind paying to find out if he can turn things around in a big way. This is a player who finished 31st or better in six out of seven earlier this year, though those results might only suggest a decent floor for this week, not a ceiling.

Only two years ago, Nick Dunlap (+35000) was believed to be the Next Big Thing in American golf, winning the AmEx as an amateur, then following up with another victory after turning pro. Instead, his ascendancy has stalled, with the blame going toward a driver that he hasn’t been able to keep on the planet.

There’s no evidence he’s solved this issue yet, though perhaps these generous fairways can help this week — or maybe he’ll again install his recent strategy of simply leaving the big stick in the bag. There’s really no reason to be a long-term — or even short-term — believer in his game right now, however sometimes we do some online shopping and buy not out of need or desire, but just because the price is too good to pass up.