Bank of Utah Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

If you’re a bettor who was really paying attention, you might’ve been handsomely rewarded at last year’s inaugural edition of this week’s PGA Tour event.

Now called the Bank of Utah Championship, it was three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner Matt McCarty who got the call-up to the big leagues and didn’t skip a beat, claiming his first victory on the PGA Tour by opening with a 62 and never really letting it get close, eventually winning by three strokes.

Black Desert Resort should once again provide an elite backdrop for those watching from afar, if not serving as the most difficult track we’ll ever see. Birdies will be available in bunches, as long as players keep it off the rocky stuff.

Let’s start the preview with a few big names at bigger numbers than you might expect.

Bank of Utah Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Jason Day (+2800)

Lemme tell ya a little story about a fella named Sergio Garcia, who once upon a time decided to play the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship. This felt like a strange one for a Masters champion and 10-time PGA Tour winner, who typically only played DP World Tour events in the fall and rarely competed in late-year tourneys stateside. Granted, 2020 was a strange year in general, and while the scheduling decisions of professional golfers weren’t exactly the most pressing topic, something seemed a little fishy, as if he was teeing it up in Mississippi in early October simply to fulfill playing requirements or sponsorship value.

Yours truly, the betting expert, said as much at the time, presuming that Sergio wouldn’t exactly be motivated for that one, despite being the most accomplished player in the field and opening at a whopping 50/1 price, which was enough to get seemingly the rest of the golf betting world to back him. Well, the final score for the week was: Golf Betting World 1, Me 0, as Garcia closed with a final-round 67 to win by one.

That might’ve left a mark, but it also reminded me of a valuable lesson: If something looks too good to come true, it can still come true. Instead of searching for the reasons why Garcia wouldn’t win that week, I should’ve – like everyone else – focused on why he could win, which was specifically because he was better than all the other guys. (Even the favorite that week, some dude named Scottie Scheffler who was 10/1 despite never having won on the PGA Tour.)

Anyway … that story came to mind as soon as I saw Day’s name in this field – and again once I saw his initial price. Upon first glance, the former world No. 1 doesn’t “need” to play in Utah this week. He didn’t have the season he would’ve liked, but with four top-10s and seven top-25s in 16 starts, he ranked 41st on the FedEx Cup points list – easily inside the number to qualify for the big-money signature events next season.

It might seem fishy to some that he decided to play here, but I won’t get fooled again. He’s the most accomplished and very possibly – at the ripe old age of 37 – still the most talented player in this field. At this price, I’ll gladly pay to find out whether this could be Sergio at the Sanderson Farms all over again.

Aggressive: Sahith Theegala (+5000)

Not gonna lie: I was saving this spot for Matti Schmid, who finished solo fifth here last year and leads the PGA Tour in proximity to the hole from 175 to 200 yards, which is a more common distance at Black Desert than most other PGA Tour venues. Perhaps Schmid needs to have a word with his data guru, who should’ve suggested that he start his schedule with this one, rather than cross it off the list. Instead, I’ll go with Theegala, who owns plenty of the same vibes as Day – a guy who sticks out based on talent alone — with odds twice as large.

It’s not as difficult to rationalize why Sahith is playing this week, as he missed plenty of events this year due to a neck injury and unsuccessfully tried to play through it at other ones. In two fall starts, though, Theegala has shown enough that we can believe he’s some semblance of “back,” even if the jury is out on whether he’s ready to seriously contend again.

He finished T-38 at the Procore Championship and T-27 at the Baycurrent Classic, each time showing enough in the performance to at least make us mildly bullish moving forward. If this were a regular-season event with all the biggest and brightest stars, I’m not sure I’d even consider Theegala, but against a field of players who largely need a big week, he makes sense at an inflated price.

Bank of Utah Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Michael Thorbjornsen (+333)

If there was a greater appetite for a golf props market during non-major weeks, perhaps we could get odds on something like, “Will Thorbjornsen win a PGA Tour event before the end of the 2025 calendar year?” He’s admittedly running out of time, but there still might be value on the positive side of this proposition, as he’s already finished T-13, T-29 and solo third in fall events.

The reason I couched my assessment of Day as the most talented player in this field with a “possibly” attached is due largely to the many talents of Thorbjornsen, who once closed in the top-five at the Travelers Championship before he’d ever turned pro. He’s a long, accurate driver of the golf ball with a very good iron game who only needs the proverbial lukewarm performance with the wedges and putter in order to contend for a title. If it doesn’t happen for Thor before the end of 2025, keep a very close eye on him in 2026, as he could enjoy an eminently predictable breakthrough campaign. 

Aggressive: Karl Vilips (+1400)

Among Thorbjornsen’s best finishes of this year was a T-4 at the Zurich Classic, when he was paired with Vilips, his former Stanford teammate. We might’ve lost a few bucks had a prop been posted on which one of these players would first win on the PGA Tour, but Vilips’ victory at the Puerto Rico Open won’t be considered an outlier in the long term.

The Aussie has plenty of game and while he struggled mightily for months after that win, he’s been coming around a bit in his most recent starts. Like Schmid, his numbers pop from that popular 175-200 range this week. I’ll admit that top-five might be reaching for a ceiling that isn’t there right now, so if you’d prefer to go more conservative with something in the top-20 neighborhood, there’s still plenty of plus-money value there. 

Bank of Utah Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Rico Hoey (+280)

At the beginning of the fall schedule, I promised (or warned?) that you’d be seeing Hoey’s name pretty frequently in my previews over the next few months. I’d assumed that would be as a potential winner, but he’s played well enough lately that his outright number has dropped to 25/1 this week, which essentially negates the reason we were going to back him in the first place. I still like him, though – especially at this course, where he was T-21 last year.

Aggressive: Lee Hodges (+500) and Carson Young (+650)

I’m selecting two players for this spot – one who cashed top-10 tickets here last year and another who just barely missed. Hodges was T-8 one year ago and like some of the other names on this list, he’s coming off a spate of poor results and has started playing better lately, perhaps suggesting the usual ebb and flow of performance is currently moving in the right direction. Young was T-11 here last year and while he’s proven to be more of a floor play than ceiling, four of his last 16 starts have resulted in top-20 finishes. Among others I like in this category: Taylor Montgomery, Adam Schenk and Matteo Manassero.

Bank of Utah Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: William Mouw (+175)

There are some players – like Vilips, as discussed above – who win for the first time, then seemingly need to catch their breath and refocus, requiring some time to get anywhere close to that type of performance again. Then there are others, whether buoyed by confidence or more secure in future playing privileges, who continue to step on the gas pedal. Cameron Young, who finally won at the Wyndham Championship a few months ago, then almost immediately started playing like one of the best in the world, is a perfect example.

On a smaller scale, so is Mouw, who was struggling through his rookie season with just one top-25 before claiming the ISCO Championship title. Since then, he’s gone 7th-38th-18th, proving that he’s no one-hit wonder. If he’s going to continue stepping on that gas pedal, we might as well ride shotgun with him. 

Aggressive: Isaiah Salinda (+400)

At this point in his career, Salinda is more of a ceiling play than floor – essentially, his good can be really good, but his not-so-good is, well, not so good. All of which suggests that a top-20 wager probably doesn’t make the most sense, but here’s buying that having veteran presence Geno Bonnalie on the bag will help maintain some level of consistency moving forward. He certainly has the type of talent to succeed on the PGA Tour over the long haul.

Bank of Utah Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Thomas Rosenmueller (+125)

If you’re spending part of the football season perusing the bottom half of the fall season golf boards in search of top-40 plays with some value, you’re my kind of bettor. Rosenmueller is a guy my CBS Sports colleague Sia Nejad has been talking about for a few months now – and the 28-year-old from Germany has responded by playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s made the cut in six straight starts, including four top-30s, which I’ve been informed tend to cash top-40 tickets, too.

Aggressive: Will Gordon (+250)

It’s easy to look at Gordon’s results and pass right over his name, but it’s a bit more difficult to look at his stats and do the same. He’s always popped in the tee-to-green areas and has a lot of offensive firepower. Of course, longer hitters tend to miss it further in the wrong direction and it appears he’s been doing that too often lately, but if you’re seeking a decent number for a top-40, he’s my play.