Best PGA Picks this Week for the Charles Schwab Challenge

The PGA Tour continues through Texas this week, heading to Colonial CC for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Most Likely to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge

Current golf odds price Ludig Aberg (+900) as the favorite to win. At his price, Aberg owns a 10% implied chance to win.

A steep drop-off occurs after Aberg, with six golfers priced between +2000 and +2500.

Included in that group are Russell Henley (+2000), defending champ Ben Griffin (+2200) and Justin Thomas (+2500).

Colonial Country Club Profile

Colonial offers one of the tougher tests for a PGA Tour event. The par 70 measures just under 7,300 yards, but the length is somewhat deceiving.

Much of the yardage is contained within the four Par 3s – all measure at least 190 yards – with a 635-yard Par 5 on the back nine.

Of the 12 Par 4s, only three measure over 450 yards. Holes 1 and 2 offer the best scoring opportunities as the two easiest holes on the golf course.

Last year, Griffin played those two holes -8 for the week vs. -4 across the other 64 holes.

Emphasis this week goes on ball-striking, scoring opportunities and bogey avoidance. Last year, Griffin ranked third in scoring opportunities inside 10 feet and sixth in bogey avoidance rate.

Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Justin Thomas (+2500)

Thomas arrives at Colonial after a T-4th at Aronimink. During the PGA Championship, he enjoyed strong iron play and a prolific putting streak.

The two-time major winner spiked to +2.49 SG: APP in his second round. During his final round, he amassed +1.5 SG: APP.

It marks a stark improvement from the Truist and Cadillac. At Quail Hollow and Doral, Thomas cleared +1 SG: APP only once.

Further encouraging about Thomas is his success on short Par 4s. Over the last six months, he ranks second in strokes gained on Par 4s between 351-400 yards.

At Aronimink, Thomas played the two short Par 4s (six and 13) plus the two Par 5s (nine and 16) to -6. On every other hole, he finished +1.

Finally, Thomas owns prior success at Colonial. In 2020, he finished T-10th at the Perry Maxwell design. He also won at Southern Hills, another Maxwell design.

Ryo Hisatsune (+4500)

Hisatsune recorded a respectable T-19th last week at TPC Craig Ranch. Now, he heads to a Texas track where he produced a T-6th finish last season.

From a ball-striking standpoint, there’s little to dislike about Hisatsune. He ranks eighth in SG: OTT on mixed or less-than-driver setups and 11th in SG: APP when it’s not easy to gain.

Both designations fit Colonial. He also qualifies as one of the few players posting good metrics on the par 4 ranges.

Hisatsune ranks ninth in efficiency on holes ranging between 401-450 yards. He simultaneously tanks 24th in efficiency on holes measuring 351-400 yards.

Last week, he gained +1.81 SG: Ball Striking, up from +1.37 at the PGA Championship. We’ve previously seen him reach +1.94 at TPC Sawgrass and +1.81 at TPC San Antonio.

The Japan-born player ranks second in my mixed condition model, so I like the price at Colonial.

Tony Finau (+6600)

Finau owns one of the best course histories at Colonial within this field. Over his last six starts here, he recorded two top-fives, four top-20s and five top-25s in six starts.

He has never lost strokes off the tee at Colonial. Rendering that more impressive is the fact that Colonial offers one of the toughest off-the-tee tests on the PGA Tour.

Last week, he excelled at TPC Craig Ranch. Finau finished in a tie for sixth, ranking eighth in SG: Ball Striking and fourth in SG: T2G.

With his irons, he gained over a stroke twice over all four rounds. Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, he spiked to +1 SG: APP eight times.

For a player peaking at the right time with good course history, I believe he owns a higher win equity than these odds suggest.

J.J. Spaun (+2500)

Spaun won a few weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open, where two of his three wins came. Although he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, I remain encouraged.

The 2025 U.S. Open winner gained +1.74 SG: T2G at Aronimink and +1 SG: Ball Striking. However, he averaged -2.3 SG: Putting that led to his missed cut.

Most encouraging about Spaun is the recent iron play. He gained at least +0.6 SG: APP in four straight events and at least +0.9 in five of his previous eight outings.

Last year at Colonial, Spaun ended a dismal run with a T-6th. Only Scottie Scheffler and Andrew Novak outpaced him in SG: T2G for the event.

Spaun also owns a brilliant track record at TPC Southwind, a correlative course to Colonial. Last year, he finished as the runner-up to Justin Rose after a T-24 in 2024.

All told, Spaun ranks fifth in my mixed condition model, so I like him this week at Colonial.