Best PGA Picks this Week for The Players Championship

It’s the PGA Tour’s marquee event: the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. 

Two-time winner Scottie Scheffler (+400) arrives as the favorite this week. Scheffler will aim to turn around some troubling form, culminating in a T-24th at Bay Hill last week. 

Rory McIlroy, the defending champion, is priced at +1200 this week. McIlroy withdrew before the third round of the Arnold Palmer, citing a back injury. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Golf odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Best Golf Picks for The Players Championship

Collin Morikawa (+2000)

The irons are peaking at the right time for Morikawa, who won at Pebble Beach earlier this year. Over his last three starts, he finished no worse than T-7th. 

Sawgrass should fit Morikawa’s game well, evidenced by a T-10 here last year. Distance off the tee isn’t a requirement here, so Morikawa’s accuracy should put him in strong positions. 

The emphasis then goes to his iron play. At the moment, the two-time major winner has been consistently showing strong approach play. 

Morikawa averaged +1.01 SG: APP per round at Bay Hill. Over his last three events, he gained just over 17 strokes on approach. 

By SG: Ball Striking – made up of SG: APP and SG: OTT – Morikawa gained 24.15 strokes over his last three. 

Lastly, he dominated the Par 5s at Bay Hill. Only Daniel Berger posted a better net score than Morikawa (-11) on those 16 holes. 

Given how important Par 5 scoring rates at Sawgrass, I predict Morikawa earns his second win of the 2026 season. 

Brooks Koepka (+5000)

Sometimes the number is simply too good to ignore. 

Koepka surged to a T-9th at PGA National, buoyed by a six-under final round. What is most encouraging about the perennial major winner is his iron spike potential. 

Over his last eight measured rounds, Koepka spiked to at least +1 SG: APP per round four times. 

That sample includes two rounds rated at +1.6 or higher in his final three at PGA National. 

Concerns do exist with Koepka. A missed cut at TPC Scottsdale leaves a ton to be desired, especially given the greens’ similarities with TPC Sawgrass. 

If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s that Koepka has gained strokes putting five times in six starts at Sawgrass. 

That, paired with the approach record, leaves me intrigued by Koepka at a near-2% implied probability to win. 

Daniel Berger Top-10 Finish + Ties (+450)

Normally, when a player thrives the preceding week, the market takes notice. 

Berger has obviously seen a decline in his price compared to last week – he opened at +9000 to win at Bay Hill – but I don’t think this correction is too much. 

Berger’s irons are working so well right now. As noted in my Players One-and-Done Picks, Berger has gained at least one stroke on approach in eight straight rounds. 

That trend offers a baseline for Berger that should allow him to repeat last week’s performance. 

One other stat is worth noting with Berger. For the season, he ranks T-12th in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. At Bay Hill, he made birdie or better on 75% of the 16 Par 5s he played. 

Course experience is a plus at Sawgrass, where Berger recorded two top-13 finishes in his last three years. 

Given Berger places third in my model, I like the price on him to record another top-10 finish this week.

Jake Knapp Top-20 Finish + Ties (+175)

Knapp withdrew prior to the start of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he consistently recorded strong finishes before that tournament. 

The California native enters the Players with the best average finish this year. In fact, not since the Sony Open has Knapp finished outside the top-10. 

Driving that record? A complete ball-striking profile along with his penchant for dominating the Par 5s. 

Knapp leads the field in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. He also places third in bogey avoidance rate since the calendar turned to 2026. 

While he ranks 27th in SG: APP for the season, Knapp started to improve his results recently. At the Sony and Farmers Insurance Opens, he dropped -0.1 SG: APP per round. 

Beginning with TPC Scottsdale, he rose to +0.74 per round. In those 12 rounds, he spiked to +0.9 per round or higher six times. 

If Knapp had maintained that SG: APP output for the entire season, he’d place ninth in the field. 

That, in my estimation, creates a market misconception about Knapp’s standing. Pair that with a T-12 at Sawgrass last year, and I like Knapp to post another top-20 finish.

H2H Matchup: Jake Knapp (-105) over Robert MacIntyre

Everything I said about Knapp above remains applicable here. The biggest surprise to me within this market is that oddsmakers price Knapp as an underdog. 

Part of me is scared it’s a trap. However, I’ll place my trust in the player with superior ball-striking metrics. 

For whatever reason, MacIntyre’s irons have imploded since the Sony Open. After gaining +0.86 SG: APP per round at Waialae, MacIntyre lost strokes in four straight starts. 

That sample includes some concerning performances at Riviera and Bay Hill. In those two events, the Scot lost -1.21 and -1.37 SG: APP in his respective appearances. 

MacIntyre ranks 115th in the field in SG: APP compared to 27th for Knapp. He also trails Knapp by 14 spots in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. 

Even if MacIntyre plays well this week, my belief is that Knapp possesses a higher ceiling. Pair that with a 69-spot advantage for Knapp in my model, and I like him at a dog price.

The PLAYERS Championship Consensus Picks

Players Championship Public Betting Data

Most Bet to Finish Top 5 (Tickets)

• Collin Morikawa +350
• Si Woo Kim +500
• Scottie Scheffler -120
• Ludvig Aberg +450
• Akshay Bhatia +700

Most Bet to Finish Top 10 (Tickets)

• Collin Morikawa +175
• Si Woo Kim +225
• Ludvig Aberg +225
• Akshay Bhatia +350
• Russell Henley +300

Most Bet to Finish Top 20 (Tickets)

• Rickie Fowler +200
• Si Woo Kim +100
• Sepp Straka +188
• Ben Griffin +260
• Jake Knapp +175