One week before the 2026 Open Championship, golfers play a tune-up event: the Scottish Open.
Current golf odds price Scottie Scheffler (+450) as the favorite to win the Scottish Open. His price implies an 18.2% chance that Scheffler earns his second tour win this year.
Oddsmakers price Rory McIlroy (+850) as the second-most likely to win. His price implies a 10.5% chance that McIlroy wins his second Scottish Open.
3 Best Genesis Scottish Open Picks 2026
Rory McIlroy (+950)
Recent winners at the Renaissance Club have dominated via elite off-the-tee play. McIlroy paces the Scottish Open field in SG: OTT this year, including second over the last 30 rounds.
Including a win, the 2026 Masters champion owns a superb record at the Tom Doak design. He finished T-4th here in 2024 and T-2nd in 2025. Last year, he ranked sixth in SG: Putting.
The irons offer a bit of concern as he ranks 33rd in SG: APP over his last 30 rounds. However, he still places 13th on scoring opportunities inside 15 feet over the same timeframe.
Throughout 2026, the putter aided McIlroy’s consistent finishes.
Only seven players outrank him in three-putt avoidance from 25+ feet. In his last three events, McIlroy spiked to +1.1 SG: Putting or better twice.
Those factors lead me to predict McIlroy will earn his second Scottish Open victory this week.
Kurt Kitayama (+5500)
Basically, all Kitayama has to improve in order to contend this week is his putter. Easy enough…right?
It’s obviously not quite as simple as that assumption. But Kitayama – a previous runner-up at the Renaissance Club – has consistently posted strong ball-striking metrics.
Since the Cadillac Championship, he cleared +1.2 SG: BS in five of six starts. He cleared +1.7 in three of those six starts. Only Scheffler posted a better SG: BS rank over that span.
Kitayama showed spike potential with his irons, too. Over his last 30 rounds, he spiked to 3+ SG: APP 20% of the time and 4+ 10% of the time.
Off-the-tee play remains encouraging, too. Kitayama has gained in eight straight starts, spiking to +0.8 or higher in three of his last six.
Those factors lead me to predict that Kitayama, who sits 12th in my model, possesses a higher win equity than his odds suggest.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+5500)
Hojgaard recorded a pair of runner-up finishes since March, including at Memorial Park.
The Houston stop offers some similarity to the Renaissance Club, where Hojgaard finished T-4th last year. It qualifies as one of two top-10s for the Dane in his last three starts.
I won’t pretend the driving metrics are good. Hojgaard lost strokes off the tee in three of his last four starts. But before that run, he gained in six straight events.
Plus, Hojgaard showed spike ball-striking potential that makes him an intriguing longshot. Over his last 16 measured rounds, he spiked to 3+ SG: BS in 18.8% of rounds in strong fields.
The sample includes 2+ SG: APP in 18.8% of those 16 rounds and 1+ SG: OTT in 31.3%. Plus, he sits 20th in three-putt avoidance from 25+ feet this season.
Pair those factors with strong finishes in Scotland, and I like the price on Hojgaard to earn a win.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
