- Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) are co-favorites to win the Canadian Open.
- I predict Aaron Rai (+4000) earns his second win this year at TPC Toronto.
- Why Alex Fitzpatrick (+4000) offers high upside based on his ball-striking metrics.
A week before players head to Shinnecock Hills for the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour travels north for the RBC Canadian Open.
Relative to most events, the field leaves something to be desired. Current golf odds price Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick as co-favorites to win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open.
Sam Burns (+1600) immediately follows on the odds board before a significant drop. Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and Robert MacIntyre are all priced inside +2800.
Best RBC Canadian Open Picks
Aaron Rai (+4000)
Over the last six months, Rai ranks fourth in the percentage of rounds where he gained at least two or more strokes in relation to the field.
He simultaneously ranks fourth in percentage of rounds where he spiked to 3+.
At Muirfield Village, Rai continued to produce strong ball-striking numbers. He finished at +1.21 SG: Ball Striking, including +0.93 SG: APP.
However, he spiked to +1.7 SG: APP in three of four rounds. The putter let him down at Jack’s place as he lost over one stroke putting in two rounds.
Still, he finished 20th or better in three straight events. Included in that sample is a win at Aronimink, another par 70, where he led the field in Par 4 average.
While he’s never seen TPC Toronto, Rai owns three straight top-14 finishes in Canada. At eighth in my model, I like his price to win another event in a weaker field.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+4000)
No player has seen a higher spike rate in SG: TOT than Fitzpatrick.
Although the sample size is very small, the younger Fitzpatrick has posted outstanding ball-striking metrics lately. He cleared +1.75 per round in three of his last four events.
Over his last 16 rounds, Fitzpatrick cleared +2.5 SG: BS six times. At Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, he averaged north of +1.4 SG: APP, clearing 1.5 in six of eight rounds.
The question for TPC Toronto is whether Fitzpatrick can get the putter to cooperate. Since earning his tour card, he has posted wildly inconsistent putting metrics.
In his 16 rounds, he cleared 2+ SG: Putting three times. But he’s simultaneously lost more than a stroke putting seven times.
If the ball-striking metrics remain steady, Fitzpatrick simply needs to putt at field average to contend. In a weaker field, I like his profile to earn an individual win.
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