- Scottie Scheffler (+300) is predicted to win the Memorial.
- I predict Rory McIlroy (+900) claims his first win at Muirfield Village.
- Why Ludvig Aberg (+1600) can contend based on his ball-striking capabilities.
The latest PGA Tour signature event comes from Muirfield Village: the Memorial.
Most Likely to Win the Memorial
Current golf odds price Scottie Scheffler (+300) as the favorite to win. At his price, Scheffler owns a 25% implied chance to win.
Following Scheffler is Rory McIlroy (+900) with a 10% implied chance to win.
Odds lengthen after the Masters champion with Cameron Young (+1400), Ludvig Aberg (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) next on the board.
Muirfield Village Golf Club Profile
The Jack Nicklaus design puts an extreme emphasis on ball striking.
Off the tee, players face a difficult defense: four-inch thick rough. It places greater emphasis on driving accuracy and on players who can hit the ball long and straight.
Approaching the greens offers another difficult task. Complexes average 5,000 square feet, a decent decline from the PGA Tour average (6,7000).
To win, players need to avoid catastrophic errors on the difficult Par 4s. They simultaneously need to take advantage of the four Par 5s, the easiest holes on the golf course.
The Memorial Picks
Rory McIlroy (+950)
McIlroy arrives at Muirfield Village as his normal self from a driving standpoint.
He’s gained at least +0.75 SG: OTT in six straight events. In three of his last five starts, he cleared +1 SG: OTT.
Irons have let him down recently. At the PGA Championship, McIlroy averaged +0.19 SG: APP and cleared +1 only once in four rounds.
However, he cleared +0.65 at both the Masters and Truist Championship. Over eight rounds, he spiked to +1 or higher five times.
Even if the approach play fails to reach peak levels, McIlroy owns a creative short game to work his way around Muirfield Village.
At the Masters, he ranked third in SG: ARG. Muirfield and Augusta offer similar tests in that it’s extremely difficult to gain around the green.
Most encouraging is the putting record from Aronimink. McIlroy spiked to +1.33 SG: Putting, his best performance since Bay Hill.
Those factors lead me to predict McIlroy earns his first win at Muirfield Village.
Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
Aberg possesses all the traits of someone who performs well at Muirfield. Supporting his case are a pair of top-20 finishes in his first two starts at the Ohio track.
The Swede cashed top-10 paychecks in six of his last eight starts. Last week, he finished T-17th at Colonial to end his top-10 streak at three.
Since the start of last year, Aberg ranks 10th in this field for total driving on long courses with thick rough. Over the last three months, he ranks third in SG: OTT and second in SG: APP.
The same timeframe saw Aberg gain 5+ strokes against the field in 12.5% of his 32 rounds. He ranks second to Scheffler (min. 20 rounds) and third to Scheffler and McIlroy (min. 15 rounds).
He also ranks third in SG: APP this year, when it’s difficult to gain. He simultaneously sits ninth in Par 4 Efficiency: 451-500 yards and third in Par 5 birdie or better rate (not easy conditions).
Those factors lead me to believe Aberg owns a higher winning chance than these odds suggest.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+10000)
Can Fitzpatrick actually win this week? Probably not, but I’m willing to predict he outperforms this market rating.
Fitzpatrick struggled at the PGA Championship. He made the weekend before finishing T-75th due to a disastrous final two days.
Before that outlier, he recorded two straight top-10s at Quail Hollow and Doral. Both events saw Fitzpatrick dominate the par 5s.
At Quail Hollow, he made birdie or better nine times in 12 par 5s. At Doral, he made birdie or better 11 times in 16 attempts.
The question with Fitzpatrick is whether he can combine his Doral driving record with his Quail Hollow approach play.
In Florida, he averaged +1.04 SG: OTT, good for the tournament lead. At Quail Hollow, he averaged +2.24 SG: APP, also good for the tournament lead.
A lot of similarities exist between Doral, Quail Hollow and Muirfield. Given those correlations, I predict Fitzpatrick will enjoy another strong week.
The Memorial Consensus Predictions: Public Betting Data
| Player | Odds to Win | % of Bets | % of Money |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 14.3% | 32.1% | |
| Rory McIlroy | 8% | 8% | |
| Cameron Young | 7.4% | 5% | |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5.4% | 6.1% | |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.1% | 4.6% | |
| Ben Griffin | 3.8% | 2.6% | |
| Justin Thomas | 3.6% | 3.3^ | |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.5% | 2% | |
| Si Woo Kim | 3.2% | 7.8% | |
| Russell Henley | 3% | 3.2% |
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