The first women’s major championship of the year is set to take place this week, but even though the Chevron Championship will be contested at a new venue, there are plenty of signs pointing us in a familiar direction.
Nelly Korda (+500) is the prohibitive favorite for good reason – and there might be more than a few good reasons to simply eat the chalk and watch her win.
Let’s start with recent history. No, not Korda’s record at this event specifically, though that is worth a mention. She won two years ago and has four top-three results in her last five starts at this one.
This is the third major across golf’s professional ranks over the last three weeks and the first two ended in a pair of Occam’s Razor type of results – essentially, the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.
Rory McIlroy might not have been the Masters favorite, but playing with the proverbial monkey off his back from the previous year’s victory, it made the most sense that he was armed with more confidence than anyone else. And it should’ve come as even less of a surprise that Stewart Cink won the Senior PGA Championship, considering he’s easily the best player on the senior circuit.
This feels like another occasion when we shouldn’t overthink a selection for a major.
Then there’s the host course, which might be new to this event, but is fresh in the minds of golf fans. Just four weeks ago, Memorial Park GC in Houston hosted the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the sixth consecutive year. What we’ve found is that it might be the ultimate big hitters’ track, an idea epitomized this year by a victory from Gary Woodland, who was leading the PGA Tour in driving distance when he won.
At just over 287 yards per drive, Korda ranks fifth on the LPGA in that category, while second in SG: Off the tee so far this season. Even though Memorial Park will be adjusted to just over 6,800 yards this week – some 700 shorter than it played for the men – its wide fairways and negligible rough should still play into the hands of the bombers.
It’s tough to believe Korda’s win at this one two years ago was just her second major title and she hasn’t won one since, a record of 2-for-47 at the big ones which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence at a 5/1 number in the outright market, but all the right signs are pointing in her direction this week, especially with a ridiculous results table which shows top-three finishes in each of her last five LPGA starts, including a win and three runners-up this season.
By the same token, we can probably eliminate some of the shorter hitters from our collective betting cards. I’ve been on Miyu Yamashita (+2200) recently and I think she’s due for a win soon, but at 157th out of 161 on the driving distance list, she’s a pass for me this week.
I’d say the same goes for Jin Young Ko (+10000), Leona Maguire (+15000) and Megan Khang (+20000), each of whom are near the bottom of the distance category, but at triple-digit prices, I suppose anyone can be intriguing.
Instead, though, if I’m fading Korda, I’d rather back big hitters with similarly big prices.
Julia Lopez Ramirez (+25000) ranks second in driving distance at 294.1, which is longer than the likes of Russell Henley and Brian Harman on the PGA Tour. She only has a couple of top-15 finishes this season, but that power could be a massive advantage this week.
Coming off a fourth-place result where she was just one stroke from the three-way playoff, Ina Yoon (+4000) is obviously playing well and makes some sense in the mid-tier, considering she ranks 12th in that driving distance stat.
Nanna Koerstz Madsen (+10000) is another big hitter who tends to be a boom-or-bust type of player. In seven starts this season, the Denmark native has two finishes inside the top-seven and five outside the top-30. On a course that suits her, though, there’s plenty of upside.
Just a few more: Rio Takeda (+6600) is the world’s 20th-ranked player and has three top-10s in her last six worldwide starts. And a personal fave, as I’ve long believed Patty Tavatanakit (+10000), the 2021 winner of this event, is a world-class talent. Coming off a T-5 last week, I love the triple-digit price on her at this one.
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