BMW Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

It’s amazing what a difference eight years can make.

The last time the world’s best golfers convened at Bellerive Country Club outside of St. Louis was the 2018 PGA Championship. Doesn’t seem so long ago, right? You remember, of course, that Brooks Koepka held off Tiger Woods that week on a course which was well-received for its first venture into this particular spotlight in over a quarter century, despite scoring which was perhaps a bit lower than usual major championship standards.

No, not that long ago … and yet, also sort of a long time?

As the PGA Tour returns to Bellerive for this week’s BMW Championship, it’s worth noting that Koepka and Woods are obviously not in this field. In fact, there are only three players who finished in the top-10 that week – Adam Scott, Gary Woodland and Justin Thomas – back for this one. And current No. 1 Scottie Scheffler wasn’t there, either, having just begun his professional career two months earlier.

The macro lesson here is that life comes at you fast, as we already knew from Ferris Bueller and insurance commercials. The micro lesson is that reviewing past results from this host venue probably won’t help much in prognosticating this week’s tournament.

Bellerive played as a 7,316-yard par-70 eight years ago, but will be beefed up to 7,448 on the scorecard this week, More than half the holes feature a water hazard of some sort, the greens are bentgrass and the weather is expected to be a bit cooler than Hades – sorry, Memphis – with temperatures in the 80s and a few chances for thunderstorms.

With that in mind, let’s get to the picks.

BMW Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Si Woo Kim (+2500)

Let’s be real: The selection here should be Scheffler – and if we’re being honest with ourselves, that’s likely the correct answer, even if the +250 outright price seems both uninspiring and extremely fair. As a general rule of thumb, I detest the “without” market – I mean, what’s gambling if you’re not going to, ya know, gamble? – but it might be the proper play this week.

Or perhaps a Scheffler/Kim exacta, as last week’s 1-2 finishers could run it back, considering we’ve seen plenty of repeaters in the FedEx Cup playoffs over the years. The problem with playing Si Woo for an outright isn’t that he can’t win, it’s that he can’t win against Scheffler – on the PGA Tour or anywhere else. They play together at home in Dallas fairly often and it’s been reported that Si Woo has never come out on top.

After Scottie won last week in Memphis, he was asked about some of those recent off-week games and how they’ve gone. His reply: “Better for me than for Si Woo.” There’s definitely a big brother-little brother dynamic at play here, even if Kim is assuming the latter role despite being a year older.

In any case, I’m a big fan of momentum plays in the postseason, as players often either have something left in the tank or they don’t – there’s some serious continuity from one week to the next. I don’t know if Si Woo can finally beat Scottie, but at nine times the price, it’s at least a bit intriguing.

Aggressive Pick: Jake Knapp (+4000)

I’ve always been a fan of targeting players late in the season who’ve previously missed some time and still feel like they’re playing catch-up. Knapp was cruising along as one of the very best on the PGA Tour for the first three-and-a-half months of this season, posting seven results of 11th or better in his first eight starts.

Then came a wrist injury which put him on the shelf for two months in the middle of the season. I’m still not fully convinced that he’s anywhere close to 100 percent, though I am confident that he’s a proverbial gamer who continues trying to play through whatever is still ailing him. That’s meant missed cuts in four of seven starts since he’s returned, but it also led to a T-7 result last week, when he ranked third in SG: Tee to Green and didn’t even putt very well.

The price isn’t particularly palatable in the outright market and I’d still take a caveat emptor approach in selecting anyone not named Scottie Scheffler, but if you’re looking to tempt those fates, Knapp could be primed for another strong week.

BMW Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Xander Schauffele (+275)

I wrote it last week and I’ll write it again this week: Before the Rocket Classic three weeks ago, Schauffele admitted he’d been playing too much “golf swing” instead of golf, an unsubtle hint that he’d become too technical with his move. That week, though, he started to swing it freer, resulting in a runner-up result, which in turn led to a T-7 last week, when he posted three rounds of 68 or better in Memphis.

I still think Xander is a not-so-sneaky pick to win the whole shebang in Atlanta next week, considering his impeccable record at East Lake. There’s not much he can do from a tangible perspective to help those chances, but another solid ball-striking week should lead to increasing momentum toward the season finale.

Aggressive Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen (+750)

According to Data Golf, the best comp course for Bellerive on the current PGA Tour schedule is Detroit Golf Club, where Thorbjornsen earned his first career victory just three weeks ago. His game wasn’t nearly as impressive last week, when he struggled a bit from tee to green and finished a mere T-47, but at 41st in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll likely need something inside the top-five to continue his season.

He also might be competing for a berth on the U.S. Presidents Cup team and while all of that might equate to a lot of late-season pressure for the 24-year-old, this could be an important week for taking a step toward some bigger and better things in the not-to-distant future.

BMW Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+105)

File this one under: Don’t try to fix something that isn’t broken. Look, I’m still a big believer that Aberg is a massive talent who can win anyplace, anytime. It wouldn’t surprise me if, one year from now, we’re talking about him as a top-five player once again and a major champion who’s potentially a candidate for the POY award.

That said, I might be a bigger believer right now in his floor than his ceiling, as Aberg has posted eight top-10s in his last 14 starts, including in each of his last two. I’m satisfied in sticking with the known commodity here. This should be a course that suits him, but instead of trying to guess at a ceiling week, I’m happy to play his usual high-level floor.

Aggressive Pick: Kurt Kitayama (+280)

Personally, I’ve never been a fan of overrated/underrated debates, probably because I take ‘em too literally. I mean, in order to critique whether a player is underrated, you’d first have to gather information on where the public has him rated in the first place, which feels like a lot of research just to make a point – and is the exact reason why we tend to just blindly argue that a player is one or the other without any real baseline for such knowledge.

Screw it, I’ll play along and make the case that Kitayama is severely underrated in the eyes of the masses, even if I have no idea just how the masses have actually rated him. This season, he ranks 18th tee to green, 31st off the tee and 10th on approach, while posting top-10s in one-fifth of his starts and more results inside the top-25 than outside of it.

Last week’s T-12 included scores of both 65 and 66 at TPC Southwind. I’d have very little problem swapping Kitayama and Knapp in their respective spots in this preview, with the former right about in the same neighborhood at 45/1 in the outright market.

BMW Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Even when Matsuyama is at his best, he’s rarely shown such high-level consistency over a long period as he’s done recently, with four consecutive top-seven results and six straight inside the top-14. If you’d rather stick with that trend and play him for another top-10 at plus-money, I have no problem with that idea, but I still believe he holds some value in the FRL market as a guy who can go nuclear with the flatstick without any type of warning.

He closed with a final-round 66 here in 2018, matching Koepka’s total that day, and while I’m not giving much credence to anything that happened then, it’s at least reason for a little single-round mojo for Matsuyama.

Aggressive Pick: Justin Rose (+4000)

In a market as volatile as FRL, sometimes it pays to not overthink the situation. Case in point: Rose posted the best score on Sunday at TPC Southwind, a 6-under 64 in difficult conditions which beat the next-lowest score by two.

Maybe that unlocked a little something. And while I continue to insist that I’m not looking at the PGA Championship from eight years ago, I couldn’t help but notice that Rose posted four rounds in the 60s that week. It’s not a deciding factor, but I mean, it couldn’t hurt, either.