BMW Championship Sleepers: 2 Best Longshot Picks

Below, bettors can find a pair of potential longshot picks for the BMW Championship.

A 50-man field leads to reduced prices in the outright market. Additionally, we’ve rarely seen betting longshots come through at this particular event.

Three of the last four winners closed at +2500 or better to win the event. The lone exception? Keegan Bradley in 2024. The Ryder Cup captain closed at 125-1 to win at Castle Pines.

With the historical precedent in mind, let’s get to the predictions based on golf odds from BetMGM.

2 Best BMW Championship Sleepers 2026

Justin Rose (+6600)

Rose showed no form before his win at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year. From a course fit standpoint, I like his profile at Bellerive.

He finished T-19th at the 2018 PGA Championship at the Missouri track. While he struggled to find strong iron form, he consistently gained off the tee.

A T-39 finish last week looks really bad. However, he’ll enter the BMW Championship riding some momentum from his final round.

Rose gained +1.53 SG: OTT and +4.77 SG: APP. It marked the second time he cleared +1.2 SG: APP at TPC Southwind after a strong opening round.

Over the last 30 rounds, Rose demonstrated separation ability from the field with his irons. He ranks seventh in percentage of rounds north of +1 SG: APP and eighth north of 2+.

That excludes a timeframe including his win this year. At Torrey Pines – a comparable course – Rose spiked to 3+ SG: APP in two of three rounds on the South course.

Given those factors, I predict Rose outperforms his market rating this week.

Gary Woodland (+8000)

I don’t place much stock in Woodland’s T-42 finish at TPC Southwind. The course removes his distance advantage and increases short game emphasis, a weakness for Woodland.

A longer course, along with easier around the green conditions, should benefit the 2019 U.S. Open winner. Plus, Woodland recorded a top-10 finish the last time Bellerive hosted an event.

Woodland recorded two top-10 finishes in four events before the Southwind failure. One came at Shinnecock Hills, which increases approach emphasis.

There, he spiked to +1.5 SG: APP or higher in his first two rounds. Over the last 30 rounds, Woodland spiked to 2+ SG: APP at the 11th-highest rate in the field.

Most impressively, he ranks third in SG: OTT on longer courses featuring a high rough penalty (last two years).

At 15th in my model, I predict Woodland offers greater equity for a strong week than these odds imply.