BMW PGA Championship Betting Preview: Options at Wentworth

In the journalism industry, this is what we call burying the lede: While the PGA Tour is back with its first fall event this week, the DP World Tour counters with its flagship tournament at Wentworth, where the big boys such as Rory McIlroy (+1000), Jon Rahm (+1400), Ludvig Aberg (+1400), Tommy Fleetwood (+1400), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800) and Viktor Hovland (+1800) get top billing.

But it’s mostly been the second-tier types who have triumphed in the past decade, including two titles apiece for Alex Noren and Billy Horschel, plus one-time major champions Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett and Ryan Fox, with Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry serving as the biggest names to win.

On a course which is more parkland than links, I like the idea of backing the American with the shortest odds in this field, Patrick Reed (+2200).

Fresh off a share of second place last week, the game is obviously in good shape right now and he was T-3 here last year. And even though he probably wasn’t given much thought for the Presidents Cup team, you know he’d love to win right before that event and just keep his name lingering in the headlines if the U.S. team fails to bring its best stuff to Medinah.

I’ve been saying for the past half-decade that all of the post-age 40 work that Adam Scott (+3300) has put into his game is going to pay off at some point with another big-ish win. That might not mean a second major championship, but it could mean exactly something like this. He closed out the PGA Tour season with four straight results of 16th or better.

I backed Tyrrell Hatton (+3300) for last week’s Amgen Irish Open, so he can probably direct some of his understated anger at me for an opening 78 that led to a missed cut. That said, it would be just like both of us for him to contend this week – him after a frustrating performance and me one week too early.

Kristoffer Reitan (+5000) often makes sense in the outright market, because he’s proven to have such a high ceiling when he’s on his game. This is a course which should fit his style.

Remember what I said about Lucas Glover at a triple-digit price? I feel the same way about Brooks Koepka (+6000) at this number.

Another hit-or-miss guy is Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+6600), who finished solo fourth last week, though if you’d prefer to talk me into Angel Ayora, Thomas Detry or Jordan Smith at the same price, I’d listen.

Whomever your favorite #TeamNoPutt guys from the PGA Tour are, their squad wouldn’t be complete without Daniel Hillier (+9000), who can look like Ben Hogan from tee to green and Hulk Hogan on the greens. Even so, it’s a good number on a guy who can go low.

I really don’t think this week’s winner is coming from north of 100/1, so I won’t go too deep here, but if you want a few big prices to sprinkle upon, I’ll go with Adrian Meronk (+15000) and Matthew Jordan (+15000) as my best bets from this range.