British Open Odds, Picks: Early Outright Bets at Royal Troon

Next week, golfers will compete in the year’s final major championship: the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon. 

The only major played across the pond returns to Troon for the first time since 2016, won by Henrik Stenson in a duel with Phil Mickelson. 

This year, Scottie Scheffler (+400) is the favorite to win his first Open and third major championship. 

Rounding out the top five choices on the board are Rory McIlroy (+800), Bryson DeChambeau (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1400), Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg (both +1600). 

Let’s dive into my early outright picks based on British Open odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

British Open Pick No. 1

Rory McIlroy (+800)

I recognize this isn’t a bold selection, but Rory fits all the criteria of a Troon winner. 

History says the most correlative Open venue to Troon is Royal Liverpool. McIlroy has made two starts at the track: a win in 2014 and a T-6th in 2023. 

He’s also one of the few players with previous experience at Troon. In 2016, he secured a top-five finish. 

Dating back to the 2014 Open, McIlroy has proved very consistent in the Open. Across eight starts, he has a win and six finishes of T-6th or better. 

Most will remember the heartbreak at the U.S. Open, but consider how good Rory’s form has been since May. 

In those five starts, he’s won at Quail Hollow and produced five top-15 finishes with three top-five results. 

Two more stats are worth considering. 

This season, Rory is second and first, respectively, on Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 500+ yards. He’s also 13th and first on Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards and 600-650 yards, respectively. 

For all of Scheffler’s success this season, he’s 58th on Par 4’s over 500 yards and 28th on Par 5’s between 600-650 yards. 

Based on those edges, McIlroy should be closer on the odds board to Scheffler. Accordingly, +800 feels like a cheap price in spite of the short odds. 

British Open Pick No. 2

Tony Finau (+4000)

Finau has flown under the radar for a few months now, and this price strikes me as worth a bet. 

Dating back to the PGA Championship, Finau has recorded five straight top-20 finishes, including a T-3rd at the U.S. Open, one of three straight top-10’s. 

Over the last two months, Finau sits sixth in SG: TOT, seventh in SG: T2G and second in SG: APP. 

But the kicker for Finau, who owns two career top-10’s and four career top-20’s at this major, is his exquisite record on Par 5’s. Over that two-month span, he led the tour in Par 5 Efficiency. 

In 2016, the top performers at Troon all bossed the three Par 5’s. Stenson, Mickelson, J.B. Holmes and Steve Stricker all finished -7 or better for the week. 

In all four cases, their record on the Par 5’s comprised the plurality of their total score. 

Finau, who finished in a tie for 18th at the 2016 Open, played the Par 5’s four-under-par that week. 

If he can survive on the other 15 holes each round, there’s a path to him winning at a higher probability than these odds suggest.