British Open Picks: PGA Expert Picks at Portrush

For the golf season’s final major, Royal Portrush hosts the British Open for the first time since 2019. 

Based on current British Open odds, Scottie Scheffler () leads the field on the odds board. He’s tailed closely by Rory McIlroy, who currently sits at . 

Other notables just beyond the two favorites include Bryson DeChambeau (), defending champion Xander Schauffele () and Jon Rahm (). 

British Open Odds

PGA Tour Expert Picks: British Open Predictions

Jon Rahm (+1400)

Based on Rahm’s recent success at majors and his close finishes at the Open championship, I predict the Spaniard (+1400) wins a major title at Royal Portrush. 

Rahm proved an investment for me in both the U.S. Open and the British Open, where he has contended without capturing a victory. 

After a weak start across the pond – 44-59-MC in his first three Open starts – he has gained traction in his last five. 

Rahm has finished 11th or better in four of those five starts, including a runner-up in 2023. Included in that run is a T-11th finish at Portrush, where he started strong before faltering on Sunday. 

Rahm began 68-70-68 to sit in a tie for eighth after 54 holes. However, a Sunday 75 dropped him to T-11th. 

While a number of active players experienced Portrush in 2019, Rahm has proven himself a strong major contender of late. 

Not including the 2025 U.S. Open, Rahm secured three straight top-14 finishes in majors, including a T-8th at Quail Hollow. 

Hang around the top of the leaderboard enough times, and I’m confident Rahm grabs one of the year’s final two major championships. 

Sepp Straka (+6600)

The year’s major championships haven’t started well for Straka, who missed the cut at both Augusta National and Quail Hollow. 

Success likely needs to come for the Austrian at Oakmont for me to feel confident he contends at Portrush. 

The good news? He’s coming off a third-place finish at Muirfield Village that could lead to correlated success in Western Pennsylvania. 

That potential is enough for me to take an early position on Straka, who won twice already on the PGA Tour this season, including at a signature event. 

It likely comes as no surprise to bettors that Straka, a native Austrian, produced his best major finish at the Open, a T-2nd in 2023. 

For Straka, his distance won’t be punished at the Open like it would at the Masters and PGA. That should allow his two best attributes – iron play and putting – to shine. 

Amongst all PGA Tour players this season, Straka ranks second in SG: APP, first in greens in regulation percentage and 16th in SG: Putting. 

Based on those factors, the price alone is worth it for Straka to claim his first major title.

Keegan Bradley (+12500)

The price alone is reason enough to back Bradley in Northern Ireland.

I recognize the Open form leaves something to be desired. Bradley’s last six starts at the Open: MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-79. That’s after three top-20s in four years (2013-16). 

But this is a player with a signature event win this season and a major title. Only three other players can say the same – Scheffler, McIlroy and Justin Thomas. 

And yet, bettors can get Bradley for 75 points cheaper than Thomas and over 100 points cheaper than the two-headed monster? 

Without including Scottish Open data, Bradley ranks sixth in SG: TOT over the last 24 rounds, including fifth in SG: T2G. 

Over the last 12 rounds (not including the Scottish Open): eighth in SG: TOT, with most of that total coming via the short game. Over that span, he ranks second ARG and 31st in putting. 

Chances are thin this actually hits, but I’m willing to take the ride for 0.8% implied probability. Pair with a derivative market – top-10 or top-20 is what I’ll be evaluating, for insurance. 

Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 Finish (+225)

The Scottish Open created a strong buy-low spot on Fleetwood, who finished as the runner-up here in 2019. 

Fleetwood ranked eighth in the Scottish Open from a SG: T2G standpoint. In terms of the three stats that make up that category – OTT, APP and ARG – he ranked no worse than 25th. 

This season, Fleetwood has lost strokes from T2G only once. 

The issue? He finished 70th in SG: Putting, losing 3.4 strokes with the flat stick. That ended a streak of four straight and six of the previous seven gaining with the flat stick. 

Without including data from the Renaissance Club, Fleetwood ranks third in my 24-round model and 50-round sample. 

In his last five Opens, Fleetwood owns three top-10 finishes, including a pair of top-5s. 

As a result, I like buying the dip on Fleetwood to achieve another positive result at Portrush. 

Tyrrell Hatton Top-10 Finish (+225)

Like Fleetwood, Hatton offers a buy-low spot at a venue where he produced previous success. 

The Englishman finished T-6th at Royal Portrush in 2019. That marks one of two top-10s since the 2016 Open. 

Last week at Valderrama, Hatton finished in a T-23rd. Still, he ranks fourth on LIV this year in greens in regulation percentage. 

What intrigues me the most about Hatton is his statistical modeling. 

His last 12 measured rounds come at the 2025 majors, where field strength is unquestioned. 

Hatton ranks the following in that sample:

• Good Drives Gained: 5th
• SG: APP: 13th
• SG: ARG: 10th
• GIRs Gained: 7th
• Bogey Avoidance: 3rd

Within that 12-round sample, Hatton ranks fourth overall amongst all players. As a result, I rate it a strong buy-low spot on Hatton to secure a second top-10 at Portrush. 

Russell Henley Top-20 Finish (+175)

If the 2025 Open replicates the 2019 version here, greens in regulation percentage is going to prove a critical stat. 

Sample the top-10 from 2019 at Royal Portrush, and bettors will find the worst GIR percentage belonged to Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed (65.3%). 

Of the first three on the leaderboard – Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau – none finished with a GIR percentage south of 69%. 

That brings me to Henley, who ranks fifth in my model for the entirety of 2025. Just over the last 12 rounds, he leads the field. 

Henley sits 14th on tour in greens in regulation percentage (70.2%) and ranks third in greens in regulation gained over his last 12 rounds. 

If he stumbles this week, bettors also get a player who gained +8.6 strokes ARG in his last two starts. 

Pair those stats with a top-five last year at the Open, and I’ll back Henley to record another strong finish.

British Open Stat Model

• Good Drives Gained (10%)
• SG: Approach (25%)
• SG: Around the Green (10%)
• Scrambling (10%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained (20%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards (9%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (6%)
• Bogey Avoidance (10%)