British Open Picks 2026: Hovland Wins First Major Championship

Below, bettors can find my British Open picks for 2026 based on British Open odds at BetMGM.

These predictions will work in tandem with my early British Open picks. Some prices have since moved by performances, and the following predictions are based on current prices.

PGA Picks This Week: British Open 2026

Viktor Hovland Winner (+3300) | Top-20 + Ties (+150)

If all goes well, Hovland offers bettors an extremely high ceiling potential. It could equally likely go wrong, but I’m more bullish on the Norwegian after his recent victory.

Since last year, Hovland spiked to +1 SG: APP to small greens at the fourth-highest rate in the field. He spiked to 2+ at the 11th-highest rate under the same circumstances.

Only 12 players outpace him in SG: TOT for the previous 20 rounds. However, only five posted a superior SG: BS record over the same timeframe.

Hovland cleared +1.15 SG: BS in four of his last five events. He never finished below +0.7 in those five. Poor putting led to missed cuts at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Still, Hovland previously demonstrated spike potential with his putter. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 14th in occasions where he cleared 2+ SG: Putting and ninth when you look at 3+.

As one of the more accurate drivers in the field, Hovland should rarely find himself in trouble off the tee. Pair that strength with his approach potential, and I predict he earns his first major.

Scottie Scheffler Top-5 + Ties (+150)

Very rarely do bettors see a potential buy-low spot on Scheffler. After a missed cut in Scotland, he arrives as the defending champion for the year’s final major.

Would it surprise anyone if he went from a missed cut to a victory? Absolutely not. Second in my model, Scheffler asks bettors to see the forest through the trees for Birkdale.

Before his missed cut at the Renaissance Club, Scheffler finished fifth or better in three of his previous four starts. In 15 starts this year, he recorded nine top-five finishes.

I’ve spoken a lot about the Birkdale-Harbour Town correlation already. Scheffler, like Fitzpatrick, won at the Dye design in 2024 and has never finished worse than 11th.

A few other encouraging factors on Scheffler are worth pointing out. Since 2025, he ranks second in SG: OTT under difficult conditions. This year, he ranks fourth.

He simultaneously places seventh in SG: APP this year with four performances north of +1 in his last six starts.

Those factors lead me to predict Scheffler will bounce back well at Royal Birkdale.

Collin Morikawa Top-10 + Ties (+275)

Morikawa appears to have settled his back issues dating back to the Players. While he failed to feature in Scotland, he arrives at Birkdale having steadily improved his results.

Since the Cadillac Championship, Morikawa improved his finishing position each week. The stretch culminated with a third-place finish at TPC River Highlands in his last start.

Impressively, he posted a T-7th at Augusta National despite lingering injury concerns. He struggled at Aronimink, but then recorded a T-17th at Shinnecock Hills.

Based on his underlying stats, Morikawa should perform well at this course.

Since 2025, he ranks fourth in SG: OTT under difficult conditions and third in distance from the edge of the fairway. He also leads the field in SG: APP to small greens this season.

A fourth-place finish at Harbour Town this year offers further intrigue. In my estimation, the Pete Dye design shares similarities with Royal Birkdale.

At fourth in my model, I like the prices on Morikawa to finish inside the top-10.

Matt Fitzpatrick Top-10 + Ties (+150)

This prediction supplements an early future prediction on Fitzpatrick. Over the last 20 rounds, only five players gained more strokes than Fitzpatrick.

From a course fit standpoint, Fitzpatrick does a lot well. In fact, he places first in my model. Fitzpatrick finishes 3.2 points ahead of Scottie Scheffler and 4.2 ahead of Rory McIlroy.

Driving that ranking: 16th in SG: OTT under difficult conditions and first in SG: APP this year. Fitzpatrick also ranks second in scrambling from the short grass this season.

Most encouraging compared to last week is his ability to putt well on slow greens. Over his last 30 measured rounds, Fitzpatrick ranks third in SG: Putting on slow greens.

Like Morikawa, Fitzpatrick previously performed well at Harbour Town. He owns two wins at the Dye design and ranks third in SG: TOT for his career at the track.

With three top-5 finishes in his last four, I like the price on Fitzpatrick to record his first major top-10 finish this season.

Russell Henley Top-20 + Ties (+188)

Any course that demands accuracy off the tee is to Henley’s advantage. While I question if he can win, the off-the-tee acumen and outstanding approach play renders him viable for a top-20.

Henley places ninth in my model largely due to his irons and chipping.

He ranks 23rd in SG: APP for the year and 33rd in approaches to small greens. However, the latter produced good finishes, including a win at Colonial four starts ago.

That win saw Henley average +2.07 SG: APP, his third-best output this year. His best iron performance came at the Masters, where he averaged +2.4 en route to a top-three finish.

In his final two rounds before the Open, Henley cleared +1.15 SG: APP at TPC River Highlands.

Even if the irons fail, Henley ranks third in scrambling from the short grass this season. The Georgia native also finished 10th or better in two straight Open Championships.

Lastly, Henley ranks 23rd in SG: OTT when it’s difficult to gain, pacing the field in distance from the edge of the fairway.

Given the gap between Henley’s model placement and this price, I predict he will record a strong finish.