Cadillac Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

For the first time in a decade, the PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral this week for the inaugural Cadillac Championship – yet another limited-field, no-cut PGA Tour signature event.

These tournaments are becoming all too familiar, with the same elite-level players competing against each other once again, just as they did two weeks ago and just as they’ll do next week.

If there’s a distinction to this one, it’s that Masters champion Rory McIlroy will be joined on the sidelines by fellow top-15 players Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre, perhaps suggesting that even guaranteed points and paychecks aren’t enough to excite some of the world’s best anymore.

Speaking of familiarity, this week marks a return to a venue which hosted a PGA Tour event in some capacity from 1962 until 2016, but we don’t need to look all the way back for clues as to how it might play this week.

The course underwent a Gil Hanse renovation in 2014 and saw an immediate tangible impact in scoring.

In the half-dozen years directly before this overhaul, the winner’s total averaged 17.5 under par and was never worse than 16-under. In those final three years of the tournament, the average winner was just a notch better than 8-under, with none of the three better than 12-under.

Moral of the story? Expect a difficult golf course this week.

The PGA Tour’s website lists this par-72 at 7,739 yards on the scorecard, and while it might not play the full distance each round, it will undoubtedly be one of the game’s longer venues.

With water lurking on nearly every hole, I’m prioritizing driving acumen over all other statistics this week – not just power, not just precision, but an amalgamation of both. While long and straight works on every course in the world, that combination should be more relevant at this one than any other PGA Tour host.

(Fair question: Why use Total Driving, which is simply the sum total of distance and accuracy rankings over the SG: Off the Tee statistic? The latter often tends to more greatly reward distance over accuracy, as evidenced by, say, distance leader Aldrich Potgieter ranking third on that list, while only 34^th in Total Driving. I’m aiming for a better representation of a power/precision mix this week, which I’ll readily admit might not turn out to be some sort of 50/50 split, but with so much trouble off the tee, I don’t want to blindly back only the bombers.)

Adam Scott, who won here in 2016, and Dustin Johnson, the 2015 champion, were both more than a stroke better per round than field average during those weeks, while 2014 winner Patrick Reed was just a notch below that mark, but still very solid.

As a result, my process of elimination this week essentially drew a line of demarcation between those who drive it long and straight and those who don’t, then I whittled it down from there. That leads to my outright plays, each of whom is among the best off the tee in the entire world.

Cadillac Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Young (+1200)

If my inclination is indeed true that exceptional driving will be the greatest separator this week, then it stands to reason that Young will own a distinct advantage here. He ranks second to only Fitzpatrick in the aforementioned Total Driving stat and hasn’t lost strokes off the tee at a single tournament since last summer’s Open Championship.

Throw in the fact that his confidence is seemingly at an all-time high, with a win at The Players and top-three results at a major and signature event among his last four starts, and there really shouldn’t be anything to dislike about him. The putter was a bit balky in his most recent tourney at Harbour Town, but as opposed to just a couple of seasons ago, those weeks are now the outliers instead of the other way around.

With five of the world’s top-15 eschewing this event, his price is shorter than we might’ve expected (or at least hoped), but again, there’s good reason for it. And speaking of short numbers, here’s a little tip: If you like him this week, then you might as well grab him in the futures market for the upcoming PGA Championship, because if he wins – or even comes close – those odds are going to keep getting even shorter. 

Aggressive Pick: Min Woo Lee (+3000)

Look, there’s no bluffing this week. I’m going all-in and turning my cards over – and what they’ll show are the names and faces of the most elite players off the tee on the PGA Tour. Min Woo ranks fourth in Total Driving – 12^th in distance; 49^th in accuracy – which is exactly the hill I’m willing to die on this week.

I’ve told this story previously, but it’s worth retelling here: About a month ago, I interviewed Lee on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio and suggested that, from afar, it seemed like he’d matured and was perhaps taking the game a bit more seriously. “No, I’m still having fun,” he replied. “I’m just better than I was before.”

There’s no statistic for SG: Confidence on the PGA Tour, but much like Fitzpatrick and Young, I believe this Aussie would be on the short list of those whose self-belief has skyrocketed over the past year.

That’s already meant victories for the other two, and I think it’s only a matter of time before Lee wins this season. On a course where driver can be the biggest weapon, it can certainly happen here. 

Cadillac Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jake Knapp (+450)

As a golf society – and I mean everyone, fans and media alike – we tend to weigh wins more than performance. Which makes sense, of course. The winner of a tournament inevitably had to succeed in hitting high-pressure shots when it mattered most, prompting discussion and praise about their victory.

We don’t talk nearly as much about consistent elite-level finishes, which isn’t a criticism of coverage. It’s just the way it’s always been. That said, there are a handful of PGA Tour winners this year who’ve received more acclaim than Knapp, yet haven’t played nearly as well.

Knapp owns seven finishes of 11^th or better in nine starts this season, yet nothing better than T-5, keeping those accolades to a minimum. Very few of his peers, though, are playing better golf so far than Knapp, whose skill-set mirrors the two names above in that he’s among the world’s best off the tee and has enjoyed a spike in his putting performance.

I don’t mind him for an outright play here – or if you’re more conservative, he could simply rack up another top-10. Either way, Doral should suit his game. 

Aggressive Pick: Pierceson Coody (+1000) and Michael Thorbjornsen (+650)

I’ve listed Thorbjornsen and Coody for top-fives here, but they’re really ladder (or escalator, for those who are even figuratively lazy) plays from top-20 to top-10 to this level.

As young players competing in a full season of signature events for the first time, they might be at a disadvantage in both familiarity and experience at some of the other annual stops in relation to fellow competitors, but that playing field should be leveled this week, on a course so few have played in competition before.

Again, no surprise, but I’m targeting a pair of guys here who are impressive off the tee on a regular basis. Each should have a pretty high floor this week, but the ceiling is a spot on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Cadillac Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Chris Gotterup (+188)

It was only a week-and-a-half ago when Gotterup was the lone multiple PGA Tour winner this season. Now he trails on that list by one. It’s tough to imagine that getting one-upped by Fitzpatrick will provide any particular motivation for Gotterup moving forward, so this play is based more on talent and fit than any sort of narrative.

The winner of both the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open has gained strokes both off the tee and with approach in all 10 starts so far, but while he’s yet to match that brilliant start to the campaign, gaining with the putter in five straight is enough of a combo to have me very interested. Like Young, he also makes sense for the PGA Championship – a big-hitting Northeast product on a big Northeast ballpark. 

Aggressive Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard (+300)

Big hitter? Check. Very good iron player? Check. Above-average putter? Well, yes… but his streak of eight consecutive positive weeks with the flatstick came to an end when he missed the cut at the Masters, then continued during a T-55 at Harbour Town the next week. I’m willing to take a chance on the ball-striking continuing at a high level while believing that the putter should come back after that two-week respite.

Cadillac Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Kurt Kitayama (+140)

For people like me – and to clarify, I mean those who are poring over stats on a regular basis – Kitayama is a tough guy to pass on, because the stats are profound in relation to his usual price point. Do the blind profile thing and you’d think his tee-to-green numbers are those of a top-10 type of player.

It doesn’t help when he does things like he did over the last month. In Houston, he opened with a 66, only to finish T-60. At the Masters, he shot a first-round 69 to finish Thursday at T-3 on the leaderboard, then posted 10 shots worse the next day and finished 51^st. That would’ve been enough to write him off for the next one, so when he opened 69-65 at the RBC Heritage, we might’ve expected another weekend lapse.

Instead, he finished in a share of eighth place, only adding to how maddening it can be to watch him and, especially, bet on him. The two-time PGA Tour winner has all the tools to be one of the better players at some point, but sometimes the stats don’t equate to results. Here’s hoping they can at least push him into the top 20 this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Keegan Bradley (+160)

I’ve written this plenty of times over the years, but it’s worth echoing here: Professional golf – for most mortal pros, at least – is akin to a roller coaster. For betting purposes, we want to catch players on the upswing rather than a descending loop.

Last year’s U.S. Ryder Cup captain admitted to still feeling the aftereffects of that loss this season, as he didn’t have a single finish better than 29^th in his first seven starts. His last two, however, have been a T-21 at the Masters and T-12 at the RBC Heritage on a couple of courses which have never really suited his game.

This feels like a proper spot to catch him on that upswing and with an inflated price in the outright market, I don’t mind taking a swing for the fences here, either. 

Cadillac Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Things are getting a little freaky around here, as I’ve now hit three FRLs in the preview (Austin Smotherman at the Cognizant Classic, Sahith Theegala in a five-way tie at The Players and Alex Smalley/Hayden Springer at last week’s Zurich Classic) since the beginning of March.

Sorry folks, but that’s about my quota for the decade, so if you’ve come here hoping to catch a lightning strike for a fourth time, consider yourself more optimistic about these selections than the guy who’s making ‘em.

All of which leads to a question for this week: Will the real Viktor Hovland please stand up? It’s been a mind-numbingly inconsistent season for Hovland, whose best performances have been interrupted by poor play and vice versa, especially recently. At the Masters, he opened with a 75, then posted a pair of 71s before a final-round 67 offered some reason for optimism moving forward. And that continued at the following week’s RBC Heritage, when he opened 64-65 to play in the final pairing of the third round, only to go 73-76 on the weekend and finish T-42.

Point is, Hovland has turned into a very high-variance play lately and, well, high-variance is my personal love language for FRL plays. I’m seeking high ceilings without concern about low floors, since a steady, solid start won’t cash these tickets anyway. I’ll accept that there’s a chance he could start with another 75 or 76 this Thursday, while knowing that something 10 shots better is at least a possibility, too. 

Aggressive Pick: Aldrich Potgieter (+8000)

I don’t trust the PGA Tour’s longest hitter for a four-round investment on one of its longest courses, for the sole reason that Doral isn’t long and wide open, but instead long and bordered by plenty of trouble. I do believe, though, that there’s going to be a day this week when he’s able to avoid that trouble and use that length to go comparatively low. Here’s hoping it happens in the opener.