Cadillac Championship Sleeper Picks: 3 Longshots Capable of Contending

So far this season, the PGA Tour signature events have largely produced longshot winners.

Three of the four champions at the designated events went off at +6000 or higher to win. Matt Fitzpatrick ended the streak at the RBC Heritage at +1600.

Whether the trend will continue at Doral, a lengthy par-72, is unknown. The last two winners – Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson – both closed inside +2000 to win in 2015 and 2016.

Still, it’s my belief that a couple longshots are capable of contending this week. Here’s a look at my Cadillac Championship sleeper picks based on current golf odds.

3 Best Cadillac Championship Sleeper Picks for 2026

Gary Woodland (+5000)

Woodland earned a win at Memorial Park earlier this year, one of two top-10s in his last three. At the RBC Heritage, he finished T-8th thanks to strong approach play.

Woodland gained +1.18 SG: APP per round at Harbour Town. In his first two rounds, he spiked to at least +1.7 per round.

A T-33rd at the Masters looks slightly discouraging. However, the 41-year-old showed glimpses of success at the correlative track.

In his opening round, Woodland gained +3.65 strokes against the field. He went on to gain +6.1 in his final round, spiking to +2.8 SG: APP.

Distance off the tee should help Woodland at Doral. Over the last four months, he ranks fifth in driving distance and 19th in total driving.

Over the last four months, Woodland gained at least four strokes against the field in 18.8% of rounds. Only four players posted superior percentages.

Kurt Kitayama (+5000)

Kitayama started incredibly well at Augusta National before completely imploding.

He gained +5.65 strokes in his opening round 69, five of which came via his iron play. But the 2023 Arnold Palmer winner shot +10 over his final three rounds.

Kitayama bounced back at Harbour Town with a T-8, largely stemming from a Friday 65. He also finished T-2nd at Riviera, buoyed by a pair of 64s on Friday and Sunday.

If all goes well for Kitayama, a top-10 finish at Doral is reachable. Since January, he ranks ninth in driving distance and seventh in total driving.

Kitayama simultaneously places 13th in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. Notably concerning, however, is that he ranks 56th in Par 5 birdie or better percentage for the season.

Still, the price is difficult to ignore on a player with a win at a comparable course.

Sam Stevens (+8000)

Stevens appeared headed for a top-20 at Harbour Town before imploding down the stretch.

He began number 14 at -9 before playing the final five holes at +7. It followed a T-24th in his Masters debut, where he recorded strong ball-striking metrics.

At Augusta, Stevens gained +1.11 SG: BS, including +0.83 on approach. In his opening and third rounds at the Masters, he spiked to +2.33 and +1.13 with his irons.

Stevens also notched a T-16th at Riviera, where he progressively improved during each round. After an opening round 74, Stevens finished 13-under over his final three, including a Sunday 65.

Like Woodland and Kitayama, Stevens possesses plus distance off the tee. He ranks 12th and seventh, respectively, in driving distance and total driving since January.

Further, he ranks 26th in bogey avoidance rate on “difficult” or “very difficult” courses since 2025.

A Stevens win would stun me, but I like his profile as someone who consistently outperforms market expectations.