- Scottie Scheffler (+225) is predicted to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.
- I predict J.T. Poston wins at Colonial Country Club based on his success at the PGA.
- Cases for Eric Cole (+8000) and Bud Cauley (+8000) to come through as longshots.
A week after his PGA Championship victory, Scottie Scheffler is a heavy favorite to claim a third straight win.
Oddsmakers list Scheffler (+225) as a prohibitive favorite at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. In three appearances here, Scheffler owns three top-3 finishes.
Four other golfers – Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth – are listed next on the board. Those players range from +2000 to +2500.
Let’s dive into my PGA Expert Picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge based on golf odds from BetMGM.
PGA Expert Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge
J.T. Poston (+3300)
Poston fits the profile of a winner here at Colonial based on his recent putting record.
Four of the previous five winners at the Charles Schwab Challenge gained at least four strokes putting in one of their previous three events.
To win at this track, the task is to essentially perform as a top-10 approach player and a top-10 putter.
Poston surged to a fifth-place finish at Quail Hollow. For the week, he gained +5.6 strokes on approach and +4.4 strokes putting.
Poston gained with the flat stick in three straight events. He gained at least three strokes putting in all three, ballooning to +5.5 at the RBC Heritage.
Most importantly, the approach record at Quail Hollow ended a streak of four straight events where he lost on approach.
Over his last 24 rounds, Poston ranks fifth in SG: Putting, including 16th between 10 and 15 feet. He also ranks 16th in birdies or better gained.
In his last five starts at Colonial, Poston boomed or busted. He owns two top-12 finishes in that span with three missed cuts.
If the approach record continues from last week, I like Poston’s putter to guide him to a win.
Eric Cole (+8000)
Cole shares the common thread with the putter as he gained +4.1 at the PGA Championship.
Including that performance, Cole gained at least +3.9 strokes putting in three of his previous five events.
While the record at Colonial leaves much to be desired – two missed cuts in two starts – success has come recently at some correlative tracks.
Cole finished in a tie for 12th at Innisbrook and a tie for 18th at Harbour Town. He also finished in a tie for third at TPC Summerlin, which has recently shown some correlation.
From a modeling standpoint, Cole radically outperforms his market expectation.
Cole sits 10th in the 24-round model, a massive improvement from ranking 90th in the 36-round projection.
If Cole excels with both the irons and putter at Colonial – he gained +5.5 at the CJ Cup and gained in seven straight on approach – I like him to earn a win here.
Bud Cauley (+8000)
While Cauley doesn’t fit the putting trend to a tee, he’s boomed recently enough that I’m willing to make an exception.
Cauley gained +6.2 strokes putting at the Players five events prior and has gained with the flat stick in four of his previous five.
Prior to a 32nd at the RBC Heritage and T-70th at the PGA Championship, Cauley recorded three straight top-6 finishes, including a T-4th at the Valspar.
Over his last 24 rounds, Cauley ranks second in my model. Driving that ranking: Ninth in SG: T2G, fifth in SG: APP, 16th in good drives gained and third in birdies or better gained.
He simultaneously ranks 18th in SG: Putting, including 28th and second, respectively, from 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet.
As a result, the price is too good to pass up on Cauley earning his first PGA Tour win at Colonial.
Charles Schwab Challenge: Betting Model
- SG: Tee-to-Green (15%)
- Good Drives Gained (5%)
- SG: Approach (15%)
- Greens in Regulation Gained (10%)
- SG: Putting (10%)
- SG: Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5%)
- SG: Putting – 10 to 15 feet (5%)
- Par 4 Efficiency (15%)
- Par 5 Efficiency (10%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
