Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Longshots love the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Maybe there’s something about Colonial serving as one of the PGA Tour’s few old-style courses – at 7,289 yards with tight, tree-lined fairways and smaller greens – that levels the playing field.

Perhaps there’s something about the schedule reaching the dog days of late spring, smack dab in the middle of the golf calendar, which finds competitors here at varying gauges on the fuel tank.

Whatever the case, we know that six of the last seven winners of this event have been 50/1 or longer pre-tournament, including defending champion Ben Griffin, who started last year firmly in that mid-tier range.

That said, I just can’t ignore a player much shorter than those odds this week, for the very reason I suggested above, as my favorite play on the board should have more in the tank than most others right now. Let’s get right to the selections.

Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Justin Thomas (+2000)

There are times when we’re forced to pore over statistics and find some rationale for why a playing is starting to trend in the right direction. And then there are times when such a thing is staring us right in the face.

Last month, in his title defense at the RBC Heritage, Thomas finished in a share of 77th place. A few weeks later, he was T-23 at the Cadillac Championship. The very next week, he closed in 13th at the Truist Championship. And then two weeks ago, he sat on the clubhouse lead for most of the afternoon before eventually finishing in a share of fourth place at the PGA Championship.

It’s fair to suggest that JT isn’t close right now – he’s already there. After missing the first two months of this campaign following offseason back surgery, he’s finally found his groove and playing some very impressive golf. In a field which owns a slighter higher Q-rating than last week – save the deduction of Scottie Scheffler – you can choose a player who keeps coming close in Ludvig Aberg or one who rarely wins in Russell Henley or one who hasn’t been great lately in Robert MacIntyre.

I’d rather just put my money into a known commodity and Thomas’ 16 career PGA Tour wins is still seven more than the aforementioned trio combined. He’s playing with some hunger and passion right now, still feeling like he’s playing a little catch-up from the time he missed. Even without much of a record at Colonial – T-10, T-40 and MC in 2020 through ’22 – this should be a place where he can win again.

Aggressive Pick: Alex Smalley (+3300)

Even before Smalley went on his recent run of elite-level golf, I believed there were a bunch of comparisons to be made between him and Ben Griffin, who won this tournament last year. In fact, there were a group of players who made their way to the PGA Tour a few years ago, including those two, Ryan Gerard, Jacob Bridgeman and Sam Stevens — each of whom is of a similar age and never had a superstar pedigree as they were making their way up.

I spoke with Smalley after each round of the recent PGA Championship, when he was the 54-hole leader and finished in a share of second place, and I loved his attitude in the immediate aftermath, which was to essentially focus on the experience and all the positives which are going to come from it. Much as Griffin was building up to this victory all of last season, it feels like Smalley is doing something very similar right now, which could culminate in a first-career title very soon.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brian Harman (+1000)

Professional golfers will often maintain that they’re playing well, but “not getting as much out of my game as I should be.” I’ll admit: Sometimes this just sounds like an excuse, as if a player is trying to convince us (or himself) that he’s playing better than he actually is. There are times, though, when this is completely true – and while I haven’t heard Harman say these words recently, this seems like a classic example.

Over his past half-dozen starts, he’s gained strokes with the irons every time, just barely lost with the wedges once and barely with the putter twice. And yet, while he’s made the cut in each of these events, his best finish is a mere T-25. This feels like a nice time for that oxymoronic industry term “positive regression,” especially at a place where he plays consistently well every year.

Harman has been around long enough that he knows there are weeks when he shows up and knows he might not be able to hang with some of the big hitters, but Colonial is a course which should have him licking his chops once again.

Aggressive Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+1000)

Speaking of players whose numbers look better than their results, Bezuidenhout is one who never drives it as long as the powerful guys or as straight as the accurate guys, but the rest of the profile is there, as he ranks 56th in approach, 31st around the greens and seventh in putting.

It’s been one of those seasons where it’s never quite been great, but hardly terrible, either, as he owns a pair of top-10s, though each came in an opposite-field event. If you prefer to play CBez a little more cautiously and use him in the top-20/40 markets instead, I don’t hate that idea, but I love his history here, with four straight finishes of 21st or better, and I’m banking on a peak week this time around.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: J.J. Spaun (+250)

Since I’ve offered up a few bigger numbers in the markets above, I’ll be more conservative with my top-10s plays, starting with Spaun, who’s really started to look more like the reigning U.S. Open champion lately. There’s no secret formula here, either.

For a guy who’s gained strokes with the irons in nine straight starts – and usually gained in a big way – he either putts poorly and misses the cut (as he did at both the Masters and PGA Championship) or putts well and contends (as he did with a victory at the Valero Texas Open and a T-5 at the Truist Championship).

That trend carries over at Colonial, too. Two years ago, he lost strokes on the greens here and missed the cut; last year, he gained with the putter and finished T-6. If he can get the flatstick to cooperate again – granted, a big if – I like him to reach the first page of this leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Aggressive Pick: Sungjae Im (+375)

In six career starts at this tournament, Im owns three top-15 finishes and three missed cuts, which sort of symbolizes what he’s become – a player about whom we really don’t know what to expect on a weekly basis. That alone might not inspire confidence in him as an outright play, but he’s proven the ceiling is high, even if the floor is a lot lower than he’d like.

The good news is that his wedge game is always terrific around the greens, which obviously helps at a place like Colonial with smaller surfaces, and the putter has been heating up, as well. The bad news is that the iron play needs to improve if he’s going to cash these tickets.

During his top-five result at the Truist Championship a few weeks ago, he was dead-average with the approach game; at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, he was just below average and still finished top-10. I’ll admit that I usually like playing guys who are trending from tee to green and then hope for a spike putting week, but we’re looking for the opposite here.

Which leads to one last bit of optimism: At last year’s Charles Schwab, the top-six in approach play finished T-4, T-66, T-16, T-28, T-70 and T-70, respectively. There are other ways to get it done here.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rickie Fowler (+115)

True story: Prior to the PGA Championship, I said on SiriusXM that a Fowler top-20 play at +200 was one of my favorite bets on the board, considering he’d finished top-10 in each of his previous three starts. Spoiler alert: It didn’t happen. My dad, though, who’d never made a golf bet in his life, texted me to say that he liked the idea and wanted to put $500 on it.

That’s a pretty sizable wager for someone who doesn’t usually invest in these markets, but I did place it for him – unfortunately. Sorry, Dad. There is a silver lining to this story, though. Well, sort of. Apparently he hasn’t paid that much attention to my betting content, because he was under the impression that a +200 bet meant 200/1.

So, the bad news is that he didn’t win. But the good news, I suppose, is that he didn’t lose out on a potential six-figure payday. Following that T-60 result at Aronimink – and by the way, he was right on the outskirts of a top-20 until a final-round 75 – I’m going right back to Rickie with the same play for this one, at a place where he owns five top-20s in a dozen career starts. The only problem is that you’ll have to bet a little more than $500 if you want to cash six figures on it.

Aggressive Picks: Mac Meissner (+225) and Andrew Putnam (+250)

I’m a big fan of looking not just at players’ skill profiles on the Data Golf website, but checking out the wild – or not so wild — shapes on their individual pages, which plot driving distance, driving accuracy, approach, around the green and putting.

Meissner’s is almost a perfect pentagram, meaning he does everything well, rather than relying on a specific part of his game. Putnam’s looks like some sort of trapezoid, though, as he ranks among the shortest hitters off the tee, but is well above average everywhere else.

What’s funny, though, is that there’s plenty to like about each one this week, as they both have three top-20s already this season.

Charles Schwab Challenge Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Mark Hubbard (+160)

Two weeks after a heartbreaking runner-up finish in Myrtle Beach, Hubbard had another solid week at TPC Craig Ranch, finishing T-31 while ranking second for the tournament in approach play. There’s no doubt that loss, during which he bogeyed two of the final three holes, still stings, but it was good to see him bounce back with another decent week in search of that elusive first PGA Tour victory. At Colonial, where he’s placed inside the top-40 in two of the last three years, that continued strong iron game should suit him well.

Aggressive Pick: Zac Blair (+188)

It’s been a weird year for Blair, who’s bounced back and forth between the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, playing six events on each one so far. In those combined 12 starts, he’s finished inside the top-40 on seven occasions.

While he doesn’t have enough reps to qualify for the statistical categories on the big tour, he entered last week ranked seventh in SG: Approach, ahead of the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele. I love that stat profile for this venue and don’t mind a top-20 play, as well, if you want to get a little more aggressive.

Charles Schwab Challenge First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)

Back in early-February, Matsuyama made bogey on the final hole of the WM Phoenix Open, then hit a tee shot in the playoff that could be generously described as “squirrely.” He lost on that extra hole to Chris Gotterup and finished T-8 the following week at Pebble Beach, but since then he’s looked rather ordinary, with no top-10s and just one top-20 in eight starts.

For the most part, though, the numbers still look pretty good, so I’ll take a chance here on a FRL ticket. For those new to these previews, I often use the FRL market to play those who have some offensive firepower and a decent run of form, but whom I don’t totally trust in other markets. Hideki fits the bill for this one, even though he’s only played here twice previously.

Aggressive Pick: Tony Finau (+6600)

Count me among those still not completely sold on Finau’s putting stroke, the current iteration of which includes a closed stance and very short backstroke. That said, it does seem to be working for him, as – much like we saw from Wyndham Clark last week – he’s gradually playing better golf and starting to play with more confidence.

I’m still maybe another solid start or two from investing in him for full-tournament plays, though I do think that time is coming soon. For now, I’ll buy in for a single round, hoping that putting stroke gets hot on Thursday.

Even though he’s a big hitter when he steps on one, some of Finau’s better results over the years have taken place on shorter courses, including this one, where he not only has a couple of top-five finishes, but five opening rounds of 68 or better in nine career starts. And just for kicks, I’ll also throw the name Sam Ryder in the mix here for FRL, coming off a solid week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.