CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

There are a few things to know about Scottie Scheffler as he prepares for yet another title defense at this week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson:

• He’s now played nine consecutive events without a victory, his longest drought since a 14-tournament winless streak which started in the spring of 2023 and continued through the end of that season.
•  While the ball-striking remains elite, his short game and putting have hovered right around field average in each of his last two events, lowlighted by a performance on the greens at Aronimink which was his worst in 27 starts.
• This tournament last year was the site of perhaps his most dominant triumph, as he posted three rounds of 63 or better, shot 31-under and won by a whopping eight strokes.
• He opened at +175 in the outright market, half the price as when he won his lone title at the American Express earlier this season and a full point shorter than when he won this one a year ago.

My original thought this week was a Scheffler-or-bust play, as this one essentially serves as a slumpbuster – not that he’s slumping, of course, with three runner-up finishes prior to this past weekend’s T-14 at the PGA Championship – but even on home turf in a field with no other top-20 players, I can’t get past the idea that the putter which went cold for the final three rounds last week might not be able to hole the two dozen or so birdie putts that he’ll need this week.

Even so, it might not be a bad week to test the without markets.

Each of my selections below are with Scheffler in the mix, but if you’d prefer to only play markets without him, this might be the perfect place for such a strategy.

Let’s get right to those other picks.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rasmus Hojgaard (+5000)

Full disclosure: When this field was first released – and yes, I was the sicko checking it out on Friday evening while also covering the PGA Championship – my favorite play on the board was Nicolai Hojgaard, but he withdrew over the weekend, so instead I’ll go with a guy who serves as a pretty good comp in his twin brother.

The truth is, Rasmus at perhaps more than twice the price Nicolai would’ve been might be the better play here anyway. I’m looking for two things this week: On a 7,385-yard TPC Craig Ranch host course without too much trouble off the fairway, I want players who mash it off the tee. And with an average winning score of better than 25-under in the five years this event has been played here, I want plus-level putters.

There are plenty of weeks when players can ball-strike their way up a leaderboard, but I’ll focus on the starting and finishing clubs here, which are the two best in the bag for Hojgaard. I still think his brother is the better player, but that might be fleeting, as they’ve tended to flip-flop for that status over the past half-decade. It would hardly be a surprise if Rasmus beats him to the PGA Tour winner’s circle.

Aggressive Picks: Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+8000) and Karl Vilips (+10000)

If it’s not Scheffler this week – and even if it is, we can attack the without markets – I think it’s anybody’s ballgame. Si Woo Kim (+1400) has enjoyed a solid season, but doesn’t seem to have much win equity; Jordan Spieth (+1400) continues to inch closer, yet not close enough; Brooks Koepka (+2500) is interesting, as I’ll list momentarily; and Davis Thompson, Keith Mitchell, Michael Thorbjornsen and Pierceson Coody (each +4000) all feel like better floor plays than ceiling.

Point is, I believe this board is ripe for opportunity and in taking a swing at ADDC and Vilips, I’m targeting a few players who own the right stat profile for this venue, have been playing some nice golf lately and, oh by the way, happen to have some big numbers next to their names.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka (+450)

As of this writing, tee times haven’t yet been released for the first two rounds, though it would be deliciously devious to place Koepka and his long-term putting problems with Scheffler and his short-term woes.

I’m admittedly at the point where I’ve over-invested in high-end Brooks plays, including each of the past two weeks, when he failed to finish in the top-10 at an alternate-field event, then didn’t contend for a fourth PGA Championship title.

The problem is, I simply can’t get over the idea that his elite ball-striking isn’t at some point going to pair with just a decent performance on the greens. And really, that’s all it’ll take. He doesn’t need to be the best with the flatstick, but it does need to be better than what it’s been, which is eight below-average numbers in 11 starts this season.

Aggressive Pick: Blades Brown (+1100)

I’ll admit that I wasn’t paying much attention to this past weekend’s Korn Ferry event while I was at Aronimink, but I did happen to catch that Brown owned a share of the lead with a pair of opening 66s. The 18-year-old wound up finishing in just 16th place, but it’s still another step in the right direction toward claiming his PGA Tour card at the end of the season.

So far this year, he owns three top-20s in five PGA Tour starts and four top-20s in eight KFT starts, including a combined three top-threes on the two circuits. It’s easy to get the feeling that something special is brewing in the very near future for this phenom.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-10 Predictions

Picks: Mac Meissner (+900) and Eric Cole (+900)

Meissner is one of the first plays I’ve listed here who doesn’t really fit the profile – he does everything well, as opposed to having one or two superpowers – though that could explain his poor record here, with three MCs before last year’s T-65. That gives me some moderate concern, but I just think he’s a better player now than he’s been in the past and he’s coming in on a heater, with two straight top-10s and four straight top-30s.

Cole, on the other hand, seems to like this course, as he’s posted results of T-23 and T-5 and has a scoring average of exactly 67. He’s also played well lately, with a pair of T-6 finishes and a T-14 in his last three. I like him in this market, but think he similarly makes sense as an FRL play, too.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Davis Thompson (+140) and Pierceson Coody (+150)

There are suggestions that I have perhaps overrated Coody in some of my prognostications, that maybe he isn’t the next Chris Gotterup in the making. And yet, I still can’t get past the fact that he literally has all the tools, including a tee-to-green game which is going to keep him employed for a very long time.

If this tournament was played 2-3 months ago, there’s little doubt in my mind that I would’ve listed Coody for an outright selection here — and while I still think he’s got enough offensive firepower to win this event or another like it, I’ll back off that assessment just a little bit and play him in this market instead. In fact, even as I write all these words on Coody, they feel eerily similar to those I’ve written about Thompson over the past few years.

These are the types of big-hitting ball-strikers I personally tend to overrate too early and while I’m still bullish on each of them long-term, staying away from each in the outright market suggests the kind of willpower of which I didn’t think I was capable. When one of ‘em wins this week, remind me to stop overthinking this stuff so damn much.

Aggressive Pick: Max Greyserman (+200)

Due to the fact that I offered some longshots in the above categories, I’m going more conservative in this market to offset that risk. I don’t expect anyone reading this to back every single one of these plays, but it’s worth considering the suggestion that when you’re playing some bigger prices in the ceiling markets, you should play some more conservative ones here – and vice versa.

Greyserman will hopefully help with that risk management as last week’s T-14 was his best result of the year and we could be catching him on the upswing.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rico Hoey (market not yet available)

Entering this season, Hoey was one of my favorite picks to enjoy a career boost, based simply on his impressive tee-to-green numbers of a year ago. He switched to a long putter during the fall schedule and instantly posted four top-10s and six top-25s in seven starts. So far this year, it’s been a bit of a mixed bag, but he does have top-40s in four of his last six and tends to make the cut on most weeks.

Aggressive Pick: Preston Stout (market not yet available)

Over the past half-decade or so, there’s been an impressive run of amateurs enjoying some success in PGA Tour events, from Nick Dunlap to Luke Clanton to Jackson Koivun. And it makes some sense — these are massively talented up-and-comers who don’t have the worries of keeping their status or trying to earn money. They’re really just playing for the experience, which should remove most tension from the process.

A junior at Oklahoma State, Stout ranks just behind Koivun amongst the world’s best amateur players and I love the idea of taking a chance on him in this conservative market, if not getting a little more aggressive with top-20 and even top-10 plays, as well.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Michael Brennan (+6000)

When he won in his third career PGA Tour start at the Bank of Utah Championship last fall, there were some ready to elevate Brennan to instant superstar, despite jumping straight from Double-A ball to the majors. This year, though, he doesn’t have anything better than a T-24 in 13 starts – and that was at the Masters, strangely enough – but he does own a ton of offensive firepower, which is what I’m looking for in these single-round investments.

Aggressive Pick: Garrick Higgo (+10000)

If you weren’t paying attention last week and I told you that Higgo hit his ball as many times as the other first-round co-leaders, but still didn’t cash FRL tickets, you’d be very confused. Still, though, perhaps not as confused as Higgo himself, whose quizzical post-round quotes included, “I wouldn’t have been late if I had known I was running late” and “I was there on time, but the rule is, if you’re one second late, you’re late.”

He’ll be aided by a new caddie this week, as his previous looper was scapegoated off the team. None of that suggests a reason to play him here, but just as I like the idea of taking an MLB slugger to hit a homer on his birthday or an NBA player to reach his overs while playing against a former team, I’ll take a chance on the Higgo narrative play in this market.