One look at the golf odds for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson may leave most bettors discouraged.
Scottie Scheffler, a former winner at TPC Craig Ranch, is a +175 favorite to win. Is he going to win? Probably. His ballstriking has returned to peak Scheffler, even if his putter has begun to fail.
Beyond Scheffler, though, the field is wide open. Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth rarely see outright prices south of +2000, while a presumed birdie fest gives longshots a fighting chance.
With that in mind, I sought out to identify a pair of intriguing longshots this week at TPC Craig Ranch.
2 Best CJ Cup Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks
Jhonattan Vegas (+15000)
Vegas posted a misleading T-44th at Aronimink as it came entirely through a faulty putter.
Last week at Aronimink, Vegas gained +2.77 strokes per round T2G and +1.97 SG: BS per round. The issue? He finished last in the field in SG: Putting (-1.9 per round).
Ball-striking is generally more consistent week to week than putting. That alone makes Vegas intriguing at 150-to-1 in one of the weaker fields outside Scottie Scheffler.
Vegas’ positive ballstriking extends to his Quail Hollow start, albeit in a smaller sample. At the Truist Championship, he gained +1.01 SG: OTT in his final round.
He also cleared +0.75 SG: APP twice in four rounds at Quail Hollow. Pair those stats with two top-13 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch and Vegas offers decent equity at long odds.
Lee Hodges (+12500)
Hodges can’t make a putt to save his life. Over his last three events, he lost strokes putting all three times, including two events where he lost over 1.5 strokes per round.
The good news? Hodges cleared +1 SG: BS twice in those three events. He’s also cleared +0.5 SG: APP per round in five of his last six events.
I’m also cherry picking here, but Hodges enjoys a common thread amongst prior winners here. Last year, he recorded a top-10 finish at Torrey Pines, a correlative setup.
While he has yet to make the weekend in two TPC Craig Ranch starts, the course changes offer renewed hope.
As one of the more accurate drivers in the field – ninth in driving accuracy over the last 20 rounds – Hodges likely avoids the penal rough at TPC Craig Ranch.
If the ball striking stays steady and the putter gets to average, Hodges could easily outperform his 125-to-1 rating.
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