Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches 2025: Best Bets, Predictions

The Florida Swing gets underway this week with the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches from PGA National.

This is the second year of the new name as previously it was the Honda Classic.

While not a PGA Tour signature event, there are several stars in the field, including Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry and Russell Henley.

PGA National is one of the tougher courses on the PGA Tour, especially if the wind blows. High scores are possible due to the number of holes where water hazards come into play. It will be very important for players to be in control of their golf ball this week.

Metrics I will be favoring this week include Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 150-200 yards, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Around the green, Bogey or Worse, Avoidance and Strokes Gained: Putting.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Prediction

Shane Lowry and Russell Henley are expected to win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with a 4.76% implied probability, according to betting markets. Sepp Straka  is next at 4.35%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Best Bets

Daniel Berger Outright Winner (+2500)

While some players don’t like playing close to their homes, that doesn’t appear to be the case for Berger, a South Florida resident.

Berger has finished inside the top five in two of his previous three appearances at this event. He also has a ton of experience at PGA National, as this will be his seventh time teeing it up in a PGA Tour event here.

He checks the course history box and also recent form. Berger is coming off a West Coast Swing of back-to-back top 12 finishes, including a T-2 at the WM Phoenix Open. The 31-year-old also has a chip on his shoulder as he said he used not getting a sponsor’s exemption for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am (an event he’s won in the past) as motivation for the rest of the West Coast Swing.

For the first time in years, Berger appears fully healthy and playing at a similar level to when he made the Ryder Cup team in 2021.

He hasn’t won since 2021, but based on how he played over the last month, it looks like that has a chance of changing soon.

Denny McCarthy Top-10 Finish (+320)

McCarthy comes into the week off a T-5 finish in his last event, the Genesis Invitational. That was played at Torrey Pines South Course, another difficult track. He also checks off a lot of key metric boxes, including being ranked third in the field when it comes to Proximity: 175-200 yards, according to Fantasy National.

With that being said, it hasn’t been great for him at PGA National. He’s missed the cut in two straight years, but he did finish T-3 in 2021. 

McCarthy enters with more confidence than he’s had in years, so that could outweigh the lack of good course history.

Ryan Gerard Top-20 Finish (+225)

Gerard made headlines at this event in 2023 when he finished fourth here as a Monday qualifier, so the course is a good fit for him.

The University of North Carolina product also enters in good form with back-to-back T-17 or better finishes, including a T-17 at last week’s Mexico Open at VidantaWorld.

The strength of his game is his ball-striking, and that typically goes a long way at PGA National.