Cognizant Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The first stop on the PGA Tour’s month-long Florida Swing is this week’s Cognizant Classic at PGA National, which is 7,100-plus yards of danger lurking at every turn with the usual whipping winds more than willing to blow poorly-hit golf balls into an awaiting water hazard.

Please don’t drink every time you hear the words “Bear Trap” this week, though it does remain a cutesy double-entendre as both an homage to course designer Jack Nicklaus and an implication that once a golfer gets into trouble, it’s difficult to extricate themselves.

In the 17-year period from 2004 through 2017, the winning total on this par-70 was 270 (10-under) or better just three times. In the four years since, the champion has reached this number on each occasion, with defending champion Austin Eckroat setting the cumulative four-round record at 263 last year.

There can be plenty of contributing factors to lower totals, from less penal rough to softer greens to a lack of wind to the ol’ “These Guys are Good” defense.

At the time of this writing, the pre-tournament co-favorites – Shane Lowry and Russell Henley – are 20/1, which feels like a much more palatable number for an outright than some of those we see on a weekly basis.

There’s reason to like both of them – and I’ll list each below – but my strategy this week is to identify some in-form players who should see an uptick in various metrics as they return to the East Coast and play a venue where they’ve enjoyed some success. That perfectly summarizes my favorite play on the board, just a few notches further down from the favorites and one I’ve had targeted for this event for a few months now.

Cognizant Classic Outright Winner Picks

Daniel Berger (+2500)

I’m writing these words Monday morning and haven’t yet seen any other industry prognostications, but I’d be pretty shocked if Berger’s name isn’t among the most popular selections of the week. In my preview for the WM Phoenix Open, I wrote that I almost left him off the list just because I knew how bullish I’d be once we reached the Florida Swing. Well, he finished runner-up at that one — his second in six starts — and now heads back to not only his home state, but an almost-literal home game at PGA National.

Some players underwhelm in these “sleep in your own bed” scenarios, but Boog lost in a playoff here a decade ago and has top-fives in two of his last three starts at this one. While his iron play has been well above average and his putter has behaved other than one round at Torrey South during the Farmers Insurance Open, what I’m most impressed with is Berger’s improvements off the tee. Back in 2020, before his back injury, he ranked 71st in driving distance and 48th in accuracy; the next year, he posted similar numbers of 99th in distance and 44th in accuracy. After a few seasons away, he returned last year as a shorter, more accurate driver of the ball, ranking 118th in distance, but fifth in accuracy. This season, though, he’s up to 62nd in distance – driving it nearly 10 yards longer on average – while remaining 23rd in accuracy.

Just based on the numbers, it appears he’s more confident going after the ball now that he’s past those back issues and that should lead to more confidence in every other aspect of his game, as well. We’ve been waiting for him to break into the upper echelon of top-level players since his return and there’s no better place to expect that to happen than in a home game where he’s fared so well in the past. 

Cognizant Classic Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Shane Lowry (+400)

If Berger isn’t this week’s most popular play, then I’d assume it’ll likely be Lowry, the aforementioned co-favorite who makes way too much sense on a few different levels. First, he’s in superb form without having peaked, closing out last year with eight consecutive top-13 global results and already with a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach this year.

Second, he’s done everything at PGA National but win, finishing second, fifth and fourth in his last three attempts. There’s nothing in his game right now that suggests he can’t or won’t contend for this title once again. Perhaps we’re asking for history to repeat itself one too many times, but this also feels like one of the more conservative top-five plays we’ll see during the year. 

Aggressive: Gary Woodland (+1000)

Admittedly, there wasn’t much separating Hodges above and Woodland here, so if you’d like to take the latter at 55/1 for the whole shebang, well, I might have a little piece of that, as well. I’ll hedge with a top-five here for a guy I’ve listed in my previews about as much as anyone over the first two months of the season. Woodland says he’s finally healthy and feeling like the guy who won the 2019 U.S. Open once again. It shows, too.

In four starts, he already owns three top-25 finishes and – like most of the players I’ve mentioned so far – owns a nice intersection of form and history, with nine made cuts in 10 starts at PGA National, including four top-10s and two top-fives. Just like Berger, there’s big poker tell from those who played well on the West Coast, only to return to more familiar surroundings this week. 

Cognizant Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Luke Clanton (+375)

It’s taken way too long, but the PGA Tour is finally listening to the betting/fantasy community and focusing Friday afternoon broadcasts on the cut sweat. There isn’t a better recent example of this priority than at the WM Phoenix Open, when Clanton needed to make the cut to secure one more PGA Tour U point and claim status at the highest level, but missed his birdie attempt on the final hole. That will of course only delay the inevitable, as the No. 1-ranked amateur is destined for a lengthy, fruitful career at the highest level.

In fact, I think it happens this week, when the spotlight has already faded a bit after Phoenix, and the Florida State product gets to compete in Florida. For betting purposes, his price has finally deflated to the point where he’s well worth considering. After opening the year at 35/1 outright for the Sony Open, Clanton is 50/1 this week, which feels like a bargain. I’m still not sure I’d back him to pull a Nick Dunlap and win as an amateur, but this is the first time in a year that I think there’s some value in him for finishing position bets. 

Aggressive: Billy Horschel (+400)

You can read five players I’ve identified who should get more consideration during the Florida Swing, but I’m not sure anyone rates higher on this list than Horschel. A native of Florida, it’s wild that none of his eight career victories have come in the state, considering he usually plays most of them and usually plays them well. At PGA National, his dozen starts include eight made cuts and three top-10s, including a share of ninth place last year.

At 20th in the OWGR, but tied for 26th on this week’s odds board, there’s a ton of value here. There’s no reason the likes of Andrew Novak, J.J. Spaun and Rickie Fowler should own shorter numbers than Horschel, so take advantage of it while you can.

Cognizant Classic Top-20 Picks

Ryan Gerard (+225)

After doing my Sunday night research, I was all set to write about how Gerard has quietly put together a really nice start to his season while nobody has taken notice, but apparently the oddsmakers have indeed noticed, as his outright number of 55/1 is somehow the same as Woodland, Horschel, Brian Harman, Lucas Glover and defending champion Austin Eckroat. Let’s just say I’m not exactly a buyer in that market, but I do like how Gerard has been playing, with three top-20s in five starts so far. 

His stats profile is about as even as it gets, meaning he might not do any one thing better than most of his peers, but he doesn’t really have any major weaknesses, either. I feel like this is one of those wagers which gets thought about, then rethought, then overthought and reconsidered, simply because of what you can buy at the same price. Why would I play Gerard here when I can get the guy who won the Claret Jug just a few years ago? It’s a valid question, but the answer to it is more about whether the UNC product can finish in the top-20 once again, not about whether the others at this pricing make more sense.

Adam Schenk (+450)

Two seasons ago, Schenk appeared on the verge of his first career victory, twice finishing runner-up and posting top-10s in big-boy fields such as the Memorial and FedEx St. Jude. There wasn’t much cause for alarm early last season, as he didn’t quite match those results, but was playing solid golf, including a T-12 result at the Masters. By the next month, though, things had changed. He failed to finish inside the top-40 in his final 17 starts of the year, missing the cut in 10 of those. He seems to have figured out those issues, though, with three top-25s in four starts, including a T-6 at the Sony Open, a WD at The AmEx being the only other one. I like backing proven talents whose careers have been derailed a bit, but are back on the way up without the odds really reflecting it, much like Berger before his recent spate of top finishes. Schenk might not mirror that re-ascendancy, but there are some definite parallels here.

Cognizant Classic Top-40 Picks

Bud Cauley (+110)

If the Berger comeback felt like a long time in the making, then Cauley’s comeback has taken forever, but he’s gradually starting to show signs that it’s going to have a real impact. In his last four starts, dating back to last fall, he’s finished 21st-30th-25th-34th. Much like Gerard, I can’t quite figure out why his outright number is so short – Cauley checks in at 66/1, same as Chris Kirk, who won here two years ago – but in these specific cases, I’m not going to let the price get in the way of what I believe should be a winning prop play. He’s cashed top-40 tickets in four straight and should keep that streak going here.

Sam Ryder (+130)

I’d submit that the form/history combo is a useful tool which offers clues on a weekly basis, however, I’m banking on it more this week than usual. Ryder is another terrific example. He’s 5-for-5 making the cut this year and 4-for-4 at the Cognizant, with results of 8th-9th-21st in the last three years. Another guy who’s on my list of those getting the Florida Swing bump, I’ve always believed he can win at this level – and if/when he finally does, it will likely be at a place such as this, where accuracy matters and a strong mid-iron game will do wonders for your score.

Cognizant Classic First-Round Leader Picks

Russell Henley (+3300)

At a course where scoring is traditionally difficult and any opener starting with a 6 is usually enough to make Thursday night dinner taste pretty good, Henley owns a career R1 scoring average of 68.90 at PGA National, with a half-dozen totals of 68 or better in the past 10 years. The winner here in 2014, I think there are reasons for a full-tourney investment, but I’d rather bank on the streaky putter for a single-round investment, knowing that he’s similarly posted openers of 64 and 66 among his four starts this year.

Henrik Norlander (+12500)

Consider this one a little Easter Egg for those who’ve read the entire preview. Yes, I’m listing Norlander for an FRL play, as he’s shown a propensity for quick starts in the past few years, but the reality is that I would’ve felt comfortable plugging him into any of the above categories — and that includes as a longshot outright selection at 200/1 odds.

While his results left something to be desired prior to last week’s Mexico Open, a share of 13th place while leading the field in SG: Approach should bode very well entering this week. He tends to be a momentum type of guy, with many of his best results clustered together, so don’t be afraid to strike while the irons are hot, whether that means a Thursday play or all four rounds – or both.