Early British Open Picks for 2026 at Royal Birkdale

Golf’s final major tournament – the 2026 Open Championship – takes place at Royal Birkdale.

Who is Predicted to Win the 2026 British Open?

Current British Open odds price Scottie Scheffler (+500) as the favorite to win his second Open Championship. The price implies a 16.7% chance Scheffler repeats as the winner.

Rory McIlroy (+700) is priced as the closest challenger. McIlroy, who finished T-4th here in 2017, possesses a 12.5% implied probability to win his second Open Championship.

3 Best Open Championship 2026 Picks

Jon Rahm (+1600)

Rahm dipped from +1400 to +1600 after he missed the cut at the U.S. Open. I remain confident in his ceiling after a runner-up finish at Aronimink and a strong Open record.

The Spaniard struggled in his first three Open starts, including a T-44th at Birkdale in 2017. However, he has since produced a wildly consistent Open Championship pedigree.

In his last six Open starts, Rahm finished 11th or better four times, including a T-2nd in 2023 at Royal Liverpool and a T-3rd in 2021 at Royal St. George’s.

Despite his missed cut at Shinnecock, Rahm continued his outstanding off-the-tee play. He averaged +1.33 SG: OTT after averaging +0.83 at Aronimink.

Only six players gained more strokes off the tee than Rahm at the PGA Championship & U.S. Open.

Rahm also showed his spike potential in all phases of play at the majors. Over 10 rounds, he cleared 2+ SG: T2G five times and 4+ once.

Pair that with his prior ability to contend, and I predict Rahm earns his first Open Championship.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)

Fitzpatrick has struggled to contend at the year’s first three majors. It hasn’t stopped market support for the Open, with Fitzpatrick dropping from +2500 after the U.S. Open.

Consistency has proven to be Fitzpatrick’s staple at the majors. While he lacks a top-10, he finished inside the top-25 in all three majors this season.

He also produced a radical improvement in terms of Open results last year at Portrush. Fitzpatrick finished T-4th last July, his first top-10 at an Open Championship.

From a SG: T2G standpoint, only Corey Conners bested Fitzpatrick last year.

The eldest Fitzpatrick owns one of the best approach and putting combos on tour this season. Entering the Travelers, Fitzpatrick has gained on approach in all but one start this year.

After struggling to putt early, he gained strokes with the flat stick in seven of his last 10. Pair that with two wins and two runner-ups, and I like Fitzpatrick’s profile at Birkdale.

Cameron Smith (+8000)

Smith, like Rahm, imploded spectacularly in the 2026 U.S. Open. He remained terrible off the tee but dropped from +1.34 SG: APP at Aronimink to -0.2 at Shinnecock.

That won’t matter for the Open, which features wide-open fairways that heal Smith’s ailment. He showed it en route to a win at St. Andrews in 2022, his lone Open top-10.

But his T-33rd finishes in 2021 and 2023 are a bit misleading. On both occasions, he shot over-par scores in the final rounds to fall out of contention.

Smith changed coaches before the 2026 PGA Championship and now works with Claude Harmon. It led to a T-7th at Aronimink despite horrendous off-the-tee play.

Still, he ranked fifth in SG: APP and 17th in SG: Putting. Those metrics are encouraging enough to take a flier on a previous Open winner at a sizable price.