- The Farmers Insurance Open is Jan. 22-25 (Wednesday-Sunday).
- Stephan Jaeger makes sense for an outright pick after a strong showing last year.
- Will Zalatoris and Michael Thorbjornsen are good value plays.
It is another unique week on the PGA Tour as the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines will be Wednesday-Saturday to avoid going head-to-head with the AFC/NFC title games on Sunday.
Two courses will be used – the North and the South. Players will play both on Wednesday and Thursday before just the South for the final two rounds.
It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, and a few players have withdrawn, including Xander Schuaffele and Collin Morikawa. It is not as strong of a field as in past years.
As of Tuesday morning, Ludvig Aberg has the best odds to win at +900.
When it comes to selecting players who have a chance to play well, I will be favoring the following metrics: Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, driving distance, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green, bogey avoidance, Prox: 200+ yards and par-5 scoring.
Farmers Insurance Prediction
Ludvig Aberg is expected to win the Farmers Insurance Open with a 10% implied probability, according to betting markets. Hideki Matsuyama is next at 8.33%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets
Stephan Jaeger Outright Winner (+5000)
This is a redemption week for Jaeger as he was the 36 and 54-hole leader a year ago before finishing two shots behind winner Matthieu Pavon.
Jaeger enters the week off a T-3 in his last event – the Sony Open in Hawaii. Overall, he has two top-5 finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts.
Given the lack of true star power in the field, Jaeger certainly is worth a look this week.
Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+110)
Zalatoris didn’t make the best course history at Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open list, but he has three career top-15 finishes at this event, including losing in a playoff in 2022.
The 28-year-old seems fully healthy following back surgery in 2023 (a T-26 at The Sentry and T-12 at The American Express) and is primed to regain his status as one of the better players on the PGA Tour.
Getting him at plus-money for a top-20 finish likely won’t be a regular thing moving forward, especially against a relatively weak field, so this is a good week to take advantage of the value.
Michael Thorbjornsen Top-20 Finish (+320)
This is a similar play to Zalatoris as I am a big believer in Thorbjornsen’s game and it’s hard to imagine getting a price like this on him much this year against a field like this.
The Stanford product’s length off the tee will help him a great deal at Torrey Pines and he’s coming off a solid week at The American Express where he finished T-34. And, if not for a 3-over round on Sunday, it would have been even better.
*Odds as of Jan. 21.
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